[QUOTE=larryphelps;31929]seems that getting stanford less than 10 points is pretty good.. arizona is playing back to back road games
stan -7.5 at hilton[/QUOTE]
I made the game 10.5 and laid 8 with Stanford early week. On Sportsbook radio I broke down why I like the cardinals in the game and some key components...That being said, I think the over 55.5 is as good a play in this game as the side...
Arizona is clearly stepping up in class for the first time all year on the road. Their defense which has received a great deal of praise is deceptively mediocre. They did do a good job of limiting Cal to 9 points and hold an injured Jake Locker to mediocre offensive numbers. However, against the pro-style offense in Oregon State, Ryan Katz picked the secondary apart and I suspect Andrew Luck can do that as well. Arizona has been able to put pressure on the passers this year but again, Stanford has done a great job of protecting QB Luck (3 sacks all year) and I trust the coaching staff of Stanford to adjust to whatever defensive schemes Arizona throws at them. Luck is amazingly well composed and will really stress the 'Zona secondary...
Another key point which Arizona has to reconcile is the special teams disparity between these sides. PK Nate Whitaker for Stanford will be playing Sundays in coming years, in fact he's good enough to play now for most NFL sides. On the other side of the docket, Zona PK Luis Zendejas has missed 3 PAT's and leaves a lot to be desired. While a lot of these nuances don't get factored into most oddsmaking models, I believe it accounts for 2 full points in this game and why my number sits at 10.5.
Net-net. I like Stanford's physical play, coaching edge, and BCS-caliber side to win this game and convincingly put themselves in a solid spot to be the Pac 10 runners up and in a great spot to go to a BCS game.
I'm not saying Arizona won't compete and why I think the over is very live. However, I see a final of Stanford 37-24 with Luck throwing for 3 TD's, Whitaker kicking 3 FG's, and Foles passing for 2 TD's and Antolin running for 1 with Zendajas going 1-2 on FG's...
Hope this helps as it's just simply my take...
