New Rims: NBA & College Hoops Totals

New Rims: NBA & College Hoops Totals New rims in NBA and increase in 3-point shooting but not 2-point shooting. Overall scoring up pretty good, but 56% unders so far. If new rims truly are a factor, could be a big deal to know what kind of rims each college venue uses before touching a college hoops total. Wrote this in another venue. Feel free to shoot holes, add thoughts....... NBA teams are scoring an average of 99.96 points per game, vs. 95.17 points per game last season, which ESPN’s Marc Stein attributes to the new, more forgiving rims in use by the Association. The rims which instituted as a safety measure, as they collapse from both the back and the front. Shooting is up just a smidge over 1%, and three-point shooting has improved dramatically, from 33.4% to 36.3%. Surprisingly, NBA bettors have not been scoring with their over bets. In fact, over the season’s first 50 games, unders actually have the advantage, with 28 games going under the marketplace projection, and only 22 games going over. So scoring is up, yet unders are cashing at a 56% rate. Reason for the disparity? Teams can shoot lights out in a game, send it way over the total, yet it only counts as a single over. For instance, in Sunday’s 133-123 Denver win over Memphis, the teams obliterated the total of 207 by 49 points. Each team shot over 55% from the field and the Grizzlies and Nuggets combined to shoot 17-35 from outside the arc. The 168 shots in the game is a healthy number, as well. So while a game like that can have quite an impact on the overall shooting percentages, it is only a single total. We’re also looking at a small sample size, only a week of action consisting of 50 games. In the first four nights unders cashed at a 20-11 rate, but scores have been higher from Saturday through Monday, with overs going 11-8. The new rims and increased scoring is something to be aware of, but there clearly hasn’t been a lot of profit to be made at this juncture and the sports betting marketplace is sure to adjust quickly. Chances are very good that by the time the last shot is made next spring, overs and unders will be very close to 50/50. An edge might be available in early season college basketball for totals players. Assuming the new rims are not standard in college basketball, knowing what kind of rim is being used could provide a meaningful edge for college hoops bettors.

[QUOTE=RealWorldSports;8294] Reason for the disparity? Teams can shoot lights out in a game, send it way over the total, yet it only counts as a single over. For instance, in Sunday’s 133-123 Denver win over Memphis, the teams obliterated the total of 207 by 49 points. Each team shot over 55% from the field and the Grizzlies and Nuggets combined to shoot 17-35 from outside the arc. The 168 shots in the game is a healthy number, as well. So while a game like that can have quite an impact on the overall shooting percentages, it is only a single total. We’re also looking at a small sample size, only a week of action consisting of 50 games. In the first four nights unders cashed at a 20-11 rate, but scores have been higher from Saturday through Monday, with overs going 11-8.[/QUOTE] Clearly, different rims can affect overall scoring. But it seems very highly unlikely that the shape of the distribution of scoring will be meaningfully affected by new rims. So this is very much worth monitoring. With scoring up, but overs not cashing, I would expect a big edge for overs in the coming weeks.

Couple important bits from the article. FG% 3FG% FT% Pts/g 2008-09 .443 .334 .747 190.3 2009-10 .455 .363 .760 199.9 [quote]Further examination of the recent past reveals that last season was a poor one when it comes to early season offense, possibly making this season's increases seem more dramatic. The league-wide scoring averages through seven days' worth of games in 2006 (98.37 ppg) and 2007 (98.87 ppg) were not far off the current 99.96 figure.[/quote] It's very early, but it's something to keep an eye on especially since players have said they notice a bit of a difference. I think if ALL the shooting stats stay higher, then that will be a pretty good indication. https://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4620192

Will this be mandated for Colleges also?? Article did not mention........

Here's another one: New Rims: ESPN's Marc Stein did an interesting piece today about the new rims in the NBA. What? You didn't know there were new rims this season? There are – the new rims from Spalding collapse both from the side and the front, instead of just from the front as they did in years past. But why bother? "We upgraded to the 180-degree breakaway rim to improve safety and reduce the risk of players injuring or straining their bodies, hands, wrists or fingers," NBA spokesman Tim Frank told Stein. "We're always looking for products that are safer without tangibly changing the game." Reading through Stein's well-done piece you will see various players have a wide range of reactions to the rims. Houston Rockets forward Shane Battier had one of the better comments. "I would liken these new rims to the ones found on the playgrounds that we grew up on," Battier said. "If you miss on the back iron, it deadens the rebound. If you miss on the front rim, it gives the rebound spring and your chances of rolling the ball in are better." Other players can't stand them, with Dallas Mavericks guard Jason Terry even comparing these new rims to the new composite ball the league tried a couple of years ago (bet you forgot about that little failed experiment). My take? The season is very, very young. Any player who might not have hit his shooting stride yet can grasp at the new rims as a reason why his shots aren't falling, when it reality it has nothing to do with it. The size of the rim has not changed and as Battier points out, the ball dies a little more on the rim so there is more of a chance of the ball rolling in. Rebounders will have to adjust just as much – maybe even more – than shooters. Moral of the story? Go for the swish.

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