NFC Championship: SanFran @ Seattle 303 San Fran 40 / ML +165
304 Seattle -3.5 / ML -185
Third time meeting this year for these two. The first game
in Seattle was no contest with Seattle winning 29-3 in week 2.
In San Fran, 12 weeks later, it was the 49ers winning 19-17.
Both games went under the total and it would take some real
optimistic projections to mark this one down as anything different.
The defenses are just above and beyond that of the offenses.
SF has the better all around skill position players. Most of that advantage
is at the tight-end position as Vernon Davis is certainly among the top 5
in the league. With great speed for his position, he is the one capable of
creating the biggest mis-match on the field. If Percy Harvin were in there
then things are pretty even but he's OUT for this game and that leaves Davis
as the player with the biggest upside. That doesn't mean he has a big game
though. In this game there is not an offensive player I'm looking to bet
OV with the possible exception of Colin Kaepernick running the ball.
Having already seen the lines at a few places I don't see any OV bets.
The one UN that I like more then any other is Russell Wilson UN on pass yds.
The line is right around 200 on him and I'll be on the UN. Tate, Baldwin and
Zach Miller do not seem like enough to get him over that number.
SFran should be able to handle those three and keep them under wraps.
Wilson had 142 in game one and 199 in game two. His last three games,
all at home, 108, 172, 103. Looking through each box score where Wilson
had over 200 yds and it's either been Baldwin or some fluky type
game out of Lynch receiving that was the difference. Baldwin has been held
in check the last three games with 1, 0 and 2 receps. This just happens to
coincide with his shift to primary KR man after a Robert Turbin fumble in the
Arizona loss. Not really suggesting there is any correlation but it is worth
noting that he has that added duty. Yardage projections for all skill players:
SF
---
Kaep 183 pass/40.5 rush
Gore 60.5 rush/8.5 rec
Hunter 11 rush
Boldin 50 rec
Crabtree 52 rec
Davis 40 rec
SEA
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Wilson 179 pass/28.5 rush
Lynch 75.5 rush/10.5 rec
Tate 45.5 rec
Baldwin 42.5 rec
Miller 22.5 rec
Kearse 20 rec
The one bet I'm hoping to get one more time is Gore UN 1.5 receps.
Haven't seen it yet. Last week they put it up at a few spots and Gore got
one early target on a broken play and that was it. He has had one or zero
receps in his last 6 games. Just once more would like to get that bet.
