nfl contest help

nfl contest help pit -3' gb -3' this would be a huge score for me, im in first place going into this w/e-1pt for each win in each round of the playoffs, sb is worth 2 with total being tiebreaker primarily squares in this so i expect everyone to have pit and gb being mostly square myself i like both of those sides but hesitating on GB im thinking with everyone on gb i can either pick CHIand possibly win this now if they win or play it safe by picking GBand if they go down it doesnt hurt b/c everyone will have them anyway please help

[QUOTE=jimmydingle;38002]pit -3' gb -3' this would be a huge score for me, im in first place going into this w/e-1pt for each win in each round of the playoffs, sb is worth 2 with total being tiebreaker primarily squares in this so i expect everyone to have pit and gb being mostly square myself i like both of those sides but hesitating on GB im thinking with everyone on gb i can either pick CHIand possibly win this now if they win or play it safe by picking GBand if they go down it doesnt hurt b/c everyone will have them anyway please help[/QUOTE] Fade the crowd and go with NY Jets...making a score requires to do some things that may feel uncomfortable at times...or just hedge out and then not sweat anything...

what about the other game, not sure i can be talked off of pit though i respect and appreciate your analysis

[QUOTE=jimmydingle;38007]what about the other game, not sure i can be talked off of pit though i respect and appreciate your analysis[/QUOTE] Go with your analysis and your instincts. I'm on the other side as I'm backing the NY Jets. I've articulated my reasons and if they resonate with you then great, if not, then go with what you feel and know you did your best...there's not much more to say...

[QUOTE=johnnetto;38008]Go with your analysis and your instincts. I'm on the other side as I'm backing the NY Jets. I've articulated my reasons and if they resonate with you then great, if not, then go with what you feel and know you did your best...there's not much more to say...[/QUOTE] If he's in first place, he should try to take what everyone else will take. If everyone is on Pit/GB, than stick with them.

[QUOTE=IceTea;38020]If he's in first place, he should try to take what everyone else will take. If everyone is on Pit/GB, than stick with them.[/QUOTE] this is what im thinking and then hedge on sb if needed no solid opinion on either side here @ these prices

UPDATE-help needed well, i went with gb (bet some chi) and pit and am now 1 game up- superbowl is worth 2 points, so if i pick winner i take it but there are 2 teams 1 pt behind me, second place is dicey and a big drop in payouts from 1st to 2nd-the total is the tiebreaker Now I think I should look to hedge this with the line so tight and no solid opinion on the game, I dont want to walk away with nothing at this point and it seems like trying to middle is not worth it. For the contest it is gb -2' what is the best game theory/strategy to maximize my take with smallest risk? take gb in contest and bet some pit possibly at +3? take pit in contest and bet gb m/l and hope it lands 1 or 2? please help

You gotta take GB in the contest at that number. The 3 is overrated, perhaps even fetishized at this point. DO NOT bet PIT +3 -130 or anything crazy like that. I don't even think the 3 is worth 20 cents with the new overtime rules. It certainly isn't worth more than that. Best number out there at the moment is at Pin, PIT +2.5 +109. There is nothing wrong with just locking in the profit, but I might just gamble on GB because I think they are the right side.

Wow excuse me, line is GB -3 they normally use a local paper from Wed but went off the grid here Now what?

PIT +3 obv. And maybe you can hedge if you can find some GB -2.5 -110.