NFL / Local Knowledge

NFL / Local Knowledge Most of the members of this forum probably have a hometown NFL team about which they have more knowledge and feel than all the other teams. Maybe they're exposed daily to news reports on their team, maybe they seek out info on "their" team, maybe they have inside info. I thought there might be some value in sharing this knowledge with one another. You can obviously decide for yourself whether it makes sense, is worthless, and how and whether to use it in your wagering. The Chargers are my hometown team. The big news in S.D. is the holdout of Left Tackle Marcus McNeill and WR Vincent Jackson. Both are all Pro's who've refused their one year tenders, wanting a long term deal. They've now been told they'll have to play for last year's salary + 10% if and when they report, (this is much, much less than their tenders had been), and the Charger GM usually will not come off lines he draws in the sand. McNeill and Jackson appear to be realistic candidates to sit out the season. Left Tackle is being manned by free agent 2nd year player, Dombrowski, who is playing LT for the first time. The loss of Jackson is not as significant as that of McNeill, as LT protects Philip Rivers' blind side, and Rivers is not the most mobile of QB's. Dombrowski is said to be a better run blocker than McNeill. The talk is that SD will adjust their offensive schemes from last year. They are very happy with the speed and power of #1 draft pick Ryan Mathews at RB and plan to feature him in a power run game up the middle and around the corners. They plan also to stress short, quick passes rather than the long bombs they threw to Jackson the last couple years. The Chargers ran the ball horribly last year. They think Tomlinson was the problem and appear to committed to running more with the rookie. If the plan pans out, it will mean longer scoring drives and probably significantly less scoring for the Chargers. This is the type of thing that will take awhile for the Totals lines to catch up to. The Chargers may warrant a look as an Under team the first few weeks of the season. Their number to open the season in KC is 45, which looks real playable Under.

I've long maintained that if I were part of a 32-man coalition that we collectively could beat the NFL. I imagine there must be coalitions like this out there. The 49ers have the same offensive coordinator for the second straight year for the first time since 2003. Alex Smith finally looks comfortable out there, and Jimmy Raye, who has no track record of success, may be a good choice for this team because his view is so simplistic. Makes it easier to pick up. The team also has two rookie offensive linemen, one at LG and the other at RT. Westbrook is not going to have an effect until Gore gets hurt. Even on third down Gore will still be out there because he can catch passes. The team should get off to a fast start and back into the playoffs as defensive coordinators adjust and Raye gets a blank expression because he can't think two steps ahead. Season wins over 8.5 seems like a lock. The Raiders will be a lot better than people realize, and a 5-3 first half and 2-6 second half would not surprise me, because the team doesn't know how to handle success. Still, season wins over seems a good bet.

Haven't seen a lot about season totals, but I just can't get to my hometown Bears getting to 8 wins. My first glance at their schedule said 6 wins at most. They have also played like crap in the preseason. Under 8 -140 seems like a reasonable bet. Any opinions?

They are playing the AFC and NFC East, which does not bode well, but the schedule makes this a tough call. Their second game with GB, normally a loss, is in Week 17. That game may mean nothing to the Pack. The Vikings may disappoint if Fezz's assumptions are right, so they may grab a win or two there as well. And the Lions games will be competitive. It's a tough call.

Follow the Packers very closely. Much was made of the 55 sacks the Packers allowed last year but much of that was because of injuries and players playing out of position. In fact, 19 of those sacks came by players who won't be starting on the offensive line or were playing out of position. Another 13 sacks came from Rodgers holding the ball too long. He has made a concentrated effort to get rid of the ball much earlier this preseason. Of the group that will start the regular season, only 13 sacks were allowed in a combined 70 starts by that group last year. The remaining sacks becuse of breakdowns from TE, RB's, etc. The line is actually very deep this year but they do have two aging tackles in Clifton and Tauscher and if anything happens to them, it could start to stress the depth on the line. And, already, Clifton is having some problems with swelling in his knee so that needs to be watched. TE Jermichael Finley is a stud and is extremely tough for defenders to match up with. No surprise here but the offense will be very tough to stop and should approach 27-30 points in most games this year. The failures or success of the Packers will fall on their defense and special teams, which also greatly need to be improved. The defense last year was shredded when they faced above average offenses and they will be challenged again this year. They lost Johnny Jolly on the defensive line as he was suspended for the year. The Packers drafted Mike Neal out of Purdue and he is an extremely strong lineman who just needs to develop better pass ruhing skills other than just strength. Ryan Pickett moves from the nose tackle position to left end, while first round draft choice from 2009, B.J. Raji moves to nose tackle. While the defensive line in a 3-4 defense isn't used to put pressure on the qb, this group does need to do a better job of collapsing the pocket. Whether they can do this or not remains to be seen. The linebackers are good and Clay Matthews is coming off a terific season but late in the season teams starting double teaming him, making it tougher to get to the quarterback. GB needs to find another OLB who can apply pressure on the other side of Matthews to free him up. They are moving him from ROLB to LOLB to get him on other side of their best defensive end pass rusher, Cullen Jenkins. They still need to hope Brad Jones or Frank Zombo can put pressure on the other side from the linebacker position. In the secondary are the biggest concerns for GB. Charles Woodson is a shut down corner but it will be hard for him to perform as well as he did in 2009. Al Harris is recovering from knee surgery and was placed on the PUP list for the first six weeks. Tramon Williams will replcace Harris and they don't lose too much with Williams but the depth is really hurting beyond that and this team will be stressed in multiple receiver sets. Nick Collins is back at one safety position and is solid. Atari Bigby, who mans the other safety position, was put on the PUP list as well. Morgan Burnett, who the Packers drafted this year, should be fine in replacing Bigby but he is young and will make mistakes, only compounding the issues in the secondary for GB. Special teams were terrible in GB last year and who knows how much they will improve. K Crosby has looked good in preseason and will hopefully be strong this year. The Packers desperately need an upgrade at Punter and have two punters in who have been excellent in preseason and they should upgrade there. Kick coverage teams remain a large question mark and only time will tell if they can cover kick offs better than last year. The Packers certainly have the talent to go all the way this year but they will need to stay healthy and find ways to cover good offenses in the passing game, which means being able to cover multiple receiver sets and being able to put pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis. They defended the run extremely well last year and early indications this year are they will do that again. But, how will they find ways to defend the pass will define the team this year. If they are able to get home field advantage and finish #1 or #2 in the conference, they will greatly aid their chances of getting to the SB. Anything less than that will only force them to play at least two road games in the playoffs and bring on all the problems listed above. Win the division (certainly possible), hope for a #1 or #2 finish in the conference and then take your chances.