NFL PLayoffs, 2 selections

[QUOTE=Lake Tahoe kid;14976]"Jake isn't there to throw 5 picks this time!" LOL I did an "extensive" Jake Plummer background check. (Always liked him, personally.) [/QUOTE] I think he means Delhomme

"I think he means Delhomme" It's a moot point. :)

Shut the naysayers up, Fezzik. Put them in their place. 4-and-a-half-hours til game time.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;14974]Warner great at home and in the right circumstances.......this one isn't it. Az has had a solid year, nothing to prove, 55 points in the GB win. Reminds me of SD's win vs. Miami........and then they went to Cincy in -10 degrees and got destroyed........ok, no weather, but good luck coping with the news Grandpa Warner. Jake isn't there to throw 5 picks this time![/QUOTE] Warner was great AT Carolina last year in the playoffs. Carolina was 8-0 at home BEFORE the Arizona playoff game. New Orleans was the best team way back in week #6. Are they playoff-tested? Coaching? Crowd over-rated IMO. That great crowd was booing New Orleans in the Dallas game. Remember, you predicted Arizona would go 3-13 this year.

Warner's playoff rating a mere 104 in 12 games. Brees has not played in post season. Arizona 23-9 ATS as a dog. 6-0 ATS as a road dog (no good on road?). However, Lang is on Arizona (damn!) for 25 dimes. Land has Ind for 100 dimes (yes!).

Wood shed Job coming......... Az a bunch of no character losers.

Wood shed Job coming......... Az a bunch of no character losers. Let's see how they respond when BEHIND in the playoffs....... I simply cannot understand the love bettors have with Az here.......worse team (clearly worse!) in a TERRIBLE spot.

Hit Warner and he loses. Don't and he will win. We should know by halftime.

You stumbled onto one of my systems [QUOTE=sasquatch;14959]Have a question... If you like New Orleans at -7, would it be better to play them on the moneyline instead? According to SBR's spread-to-moneyline calculator, a 7pt favorite should have approximate Dog Odds of +285 and favorite odds of -371.4. This makes me think that a -270 moneyline on New Orleans would be pretty cheap, if you like this side. Is this right? [url]https://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Spread+ML+Converter.aspx[/url][/QUOTE] I noticed this many years ago...in big games (like the Super Bowl) the normally non-betting public comes out of the woodwork and places money-line bets on the underdog. The sports books are forced to lower the spread to even out the money bet on each side, thus making the money line favorite an advantage bet for the player. Watch the Super Bowl for advantage bets like this in proposition bets, although sharps have been catching on the last few years and greatly lowering the advantage. Here's an example: Years ago, the rabble bet, 'yes, the Super Bowl will go into overtime', thus reducing the odds on 'no overtime' to 'bet 8 to win 1' on 'no overtime.' You know the odds on an overtime game are more like 20 to 1, so I reaped a huge advantage. Unfortunately, the books and the sharp bettors have moved this line greatly the last two years. Other advantage moves [B]in the past have been on 'no safety' and 'no two point conversion.' I suspect the advantage on those has been all but eliminated also.

[QUOTE=dandarla;15028]I noticed this many years ago...in big games (like the Super Bowl) the normally non-betting public comes out of the woodwork and places money-line bets on the underdog. The sports books are forced to lower the spread to even out the money bet on each side, thus making the money line favorite an advantage bet for the player.[/QUOTE] Yes, but in those situations, you get much better MLs on 7 point favorites than -270. -220 or less MLs were pretty routine with 7 point favorites. In any case, there's absolutely no way a ML of -371 is the equivalent of -7 -110. -270 may be fractionally better but it isn't almost 6% better.