nfl season wins a few thoughts

nfl season wins a few thoughts I don't want to tip my hand too much on stuff before I bet it, but a few notes: ALL of Vegas is eager to get these up. They get to hold the money for 6 months, a great thing for cash strapped Casinos with high debts! The problem is 'who is going to bell the cat' meaning it isn't easy to be the 1st guy to put these things up! Now, as a 'check' to their work, the first guy putting there numbers up should compare their stuff to 'posted' suggested lines already out there (@yoryboy,@beyondthebets). Let me emphasize, Vegas has VERY few oddsmakers, just oddscopiers for the most part. THERE IS NO WAY guys Like Bob Scucci (a sharp, but conservative guy) at the Orleans is EVER going to put up his numbers first on anything. Ditto for LeRoy's, and some other books. By Contrast, The Hilton is very likely to go up 1st, but Cantor, MGM, Wynn and Golden Nugget and a few others may well step up 1st. It's clear certain teams are going to have a big following. 'EVERYONE' would bet on Det OVER 7 wins, if this was posted for example, but likely it comes just a bit higher. Qb uncertainties are HUGE right now........who is going to QB Az?? This is going to make for some headaches setting lines for certain teams. Was Cam Newton a good choice for Carolina? The pro bettors will say "MY GOODNESS NO!", as Carolina will have the lowest season win ov/un, AND money will STILL pour on the under 5 if Newton is named the starter. How silly is Carolina going to feel after a 3-13 season with a diastrous Newton if they can select Luck next year from Stanford (The real deal) and have to find some sucker to trade Newton to, and pay his contract??)

I dont see any lines for week 1 yet at greek, pinny etc. One of my euro bookies have all games with handicaps, moneylines and totals allready Pretty weird New orleans +5.5 at GB with a total of 47 on opening night

I tend to look at these lists and then pretend that every favorite wins SU and that pick'em games are ties. Then I look for the greatest discrepancy between the "expected record" from the schedule and the RSW totals posted.

The "favorites will way" strategy explains why the square college and pro publications always have all the 'good' teams going over........ every year, Oklahoma is going to go 11-1 or 12-0 according to them, and the Steelers 14-2.

So you don't hit these at open and then play back on Labor Day?

Free agents will have a big impact as well. While there aren't likely to be any huge names (I guess Manning may be a free agent technically but will sign with the Colts) I believe there will be over 500 free agents. What that means, is the Carolina's of the world can improve their team greatly by picking up a couple of good offensive lineman, a safety, a cornerback etc. Not necessarily saying it will be Carolina, but certain teams could improve or take a step back based on what happens with the free agents. Another huge variable in all of this. It will be interesting to see how much the lines change from what Cantor put out for their weekly lines.