I also played Dall/TB under 41.5. Usually, I like to see a few preseason games before I bet a week one NFL total. However, the technical and fundamental aspects of this matchup indicate that this total will fall below the key number of 41 by the time this game kicks off on Sept 13.
My raw total as of today is 39.5 on this matchup. Of course, my numbers will change as the preseason progresses.Betting "under" in Sept home games played in Florida is 22-12 in the last six seasons.The heat and humidity obviously play a factor in the lower scoring games.Tampa is 5-1 "under" the total in the first home game of the past six seasons.They have played 8-3 "under" in Sept home games during the same stretch.
Fundamentally,the matchup looks to be a lower scoring game. The Bucs will most likely start a journeyman qb (McCown or Leftwich).If they go with rookie,Freeman,the game plan will obviously be greatly simplified.I have read quotes from both new HC,Raheem Morris and new OC Jagodzinski.They say that the Bucs will be a "downhill running team" which will play a physical brand of offense.Jagodzinski will install a zone blocking scheme to pound the ball. None of the projected running backs on the roster possess breakaway speed.
Dallas lost their home run threat when T.O. signed with the Bills.They traded the bulk of this year's draft to obtain wr Roy Williams.To state that he did not have a good year in 2008 is an understatement.They still don't have a proven "second " receiver. The lack of high draft choices did not allow Dallas to address one of their "need" areas. Their OL is old and slow.LT Flozell Adams allowed 7.5 sacks and was penalized 12 times in 2008. LG Kyle Kozier is coming off of a fractured foot from last season. Unless they get improved productivity from the left side of their OL,Romo will be unprotected on his blind side.Subtractions from the Cowboys' secondary may actually improve their pass coverage. Pacman Jones will no longer be a problem to team chemistry.SS Roy Willimas hurt the defense because he was beat often on deep passes and incurred numerous,costly major penalties.HC, Wade Phillips will also assume the role of DC this season.
If the weather on Sept 13 indicates temps in the 90's with high humidty,I expect the total to fall to 39 or 40.
Good luck,
charliej
