NFL week 14

NFL week 14 Atl +10 -108 Atl over 50 1/2 +102 Chi +4 -110 NYJ over 36 1/2 -107 NE over 43 1/2 -107 Min -6 -102 All anti-friend.

Anti-Friend??? [QUOTE=Old School;12125]Atl +10 -108 Atl over 50 1/2 +102 Chi +4 -110 NYJ over 36 1/2 -107 NE over 43 1/2 -107 Min -6 -102 All anti-friend.[/QUOTE] OS, I read all your posts. Always very interesting. Thank you for posting. What exactly is Anti-friend? I see it often in your posts and don't know what it means??? Thanks in advance.

Anti-friend means his square friends are all on a side, so he is going to bet the other way.

Was -1 -120 Was over 37 1/2 +101 Stl +13 1/2 +103 Stl under 41 -120 Dal -3 -135 All anti-friend.

Friends are not so square this year. They ALL had SD ("SD never loses in December and Dallas never wins in December"). They were unlucky when Gradkowski got hurt for Oakland, and Russell had to "play". They are well into the black with two months left! Two more anti-friend plays: NYG +1 -104 NYG over 43 +103.

[QUOTE=Old School;12194]Friends are not so square this year. They ALL had SD ("SD never loses in December and Dallas never wins in December"). They were unlucky when Gradkowski got hurt for Oakland, and Russell had to "play". They are well into the black with two months left![/QUOTE] FAVS 9-5 so far in Week 14 (based on closing off-shore lines)! Assuming PHI closes as the FAV, doesn't the math at this point dictate betting NYG and SF? I think Ben Campbell and Micky Rosa would tell you that "variable change" requires such a result. "Always account for variable change." -Professor Rosa

The MemoryLess property disagrees. But we all know MNF game might see more Chalk action, as the Chalk bettors will be eager to 'back the better team' angle.......that cleaned up this week. So from that perspective, vs closing lines, MNF dog worth a longer look.

Fezz: Your post is well taken. Among many other things, my original post did not factor in what the total FAV winning percentage this season is so far. Expanding on this topic though, isn't it statistically proven that NFL favorites will not win at 66.6% versus closing lines (percentage based on FAVS going 10/15 so far versus closing lines in WEEK 14)? Therefore, assuming that through 14 Weeks of play, if FAVS had been hitting at a 66.6% clip, it would make some bit of mathematical sense to blindly bet DOGS versus closing lines going forward, right? This is of course simply just a hypothetical - I do understand that in practice, this is probably as dangerous as betting BLACK in roulette just because there have been 10 RED hits. PS: Are "The MemoryLess Property" and "The Gambler's Fallacy" the same thing?

SF +4 -106 SF underf 44 1/2 Yes, both anti-friend. The SF play agrees with my power rating of pick (this is one of the few years where my power ratings are better than my antifriend bets).

[QUOTE=Old School;12125]Atl +10 -108 Atl over 50 1/2 +102 Chi +4 -110 NYJ over 36 1/2 -107 NE over 43 1/2 -107 Min -6 -102 All anti-friend.[/QUOTE] There are some teams that I just never win when I bet on them. The Rams are one of them.