NFL WEEK 15 bets

is betting on NFL just about getting/beating a number.... i can pretty much do that followin pinnacle, What im I missing ?

[QUOTE=anthony;55601]In defense of the naysayers, it's been pretty bad. Have to admit.[/QUOTE] Im not sure how long you've been gambling but the pro's know that these kind of things ebb and flow. Eventually fezzik will be due for a nice positive run and I want to be on board when that happens. It will flow. Just a mater of when.

We had one earlier this year. There is one thing I'll introduce to the discussion. We've seen repeatedly that all sports during their respective regular seasons become more difficult to handicap as time goes on. Perhaps the tighter lines are having an effect as well. After all, if you expect to hit 55% in September but 51% in December, based on your edge, it's less of a deviation to have a bad stretch later in the season. I mean, really, the easiest opportunity right now is probably college basketball.

[QUOTE=RedSquare;55604]Im not sure how long you've been gambling but the pro's know that these kind of things ebb and flow. Eventually fezzik will be due for a nice positive run and I want to be on board when that happens. It will flow. Just a mater of when.[/QUOTE] Red square, I understand the logic that following a quality capper like Fezzik who's been successful but is on a bad run SHOULD yield much better results eventually. Well, it's week 15 and if you're just getting in now and missed all the losing, well done and good luck. I wasn't around last year but I think the struggles are going on 2 years now. I don't subscribe to the "due" theory but damn is he ever "due". Fezz, got nothing but respect for what you've accomplished but gotta bow out

Are you kidding? Have you(red square) been around following the weekly plays the last 2 years ? I'm guessing if he's doing any winning its on live betting or futures, certainly not the weekly plays. Anyone playing all the weekly plays can't really have any kind of bankroll left. Best part of following is when you see a line move you know when it's from him or not. Like all the money came in on Dallas after his release on Pitt ,like I said a couple of weeks ago that's what I'm looking for when the market rejects his moves.

I'm consistently getting off plays at half and mostly in game watering just to pay vig. Perfect example was Dallas today. Call me stupid but I had no confidence in these plays after the early blowouts and had to bail. Only wish I could've done something with Buffalo close to the number but as we saw today the closing number didn't matter.

3Q TB play ... Thought about this and asked "what makes this such a good play" ... couldn't figure it out but at halftime it had some promise as TB was shut out in the first half and even though they looked listless, lifeless and lost ... all they had to do was MATCH the Saints scoring in the 3rd to win. How many watched as, down by seven, TB drove most of the field, got inside the red zone, and had two shots in the endzone for a possible tying and with an extra point, winning play. Yeah it hurt to watch a near TD go awry and then Freeman not even get a good pass off on the last play of the quarter, I believe, on 4th down. Just the way it's going --- close but no cigar. On a different note ... not much mention of the KC/OAK OVER ... really had a hardtime buying into this one and bet 1.5X instead of 3X ... KC can't score, is walking home at this point and OAK is just awful.

Pit/Dal was a coinflip that ultimately lost because of an interception in overtime. Even tonight's debacle (at least from my perspective) has been colored by unlucky turnovers. Can't defend Oak/KC over. Oak sucks vs. the run, and KC runs well, but the reason Oak sucks vs. the run is because their YPG is high. It is high because they always lose. That could have been why.

Any body whose lost there entire br following one caper needs to go back to school and hit the books! In gambling we have something called the Kelly criterian which always tells us exactly what to bet. If you always wager a percentage of your br in proportion to your edge, you will never go broke. I would of thought that many of the gamblers here should know this.

[QUOTE=RedSquare;55611]Any body whose lost there entire br following one caper needs to go back to school and hit the books! In gambling we have something called the Kelly criterian which always tells us exactly what to bet. If you always wager a percentage of your br in proportion to your edge, you will never go broke. I would of thought that many of the gamblers here should know this.[/QUOTE] Thanks for the tip.