NFL WEEK 15 Thread

NFL WEEK 15 Thread Stay tuned......

315 Panthers +6 3 weight, still some +6.5 in Vegas, fast disappearing........

were'nt u posting some "advice" on twitter about people betting Atl today being donkeys because they didn't get it at -11? Spot on, per usual.... they sure do look like asses cashing those easy tickets

Donkeys win, too. Doesn't mean they aren't donkeys.

right sides r right sides, whether 11 or 14.... i know that freaks out all the "best line" weirdos but this was 1 of many.... side so right. I almost thought i'd see: "I'd take Atl -11 for 2 weight but at 14, I really like Jax 3 weight". i mean, it's called taking a position, not just line shopping... atlanta was the right side no matter 11 or 14, accept it. Jax +14 was never +EV or "non-donkey", u can talk urself till u blue in the face won't change the fact there was no way they finish within 20 of atl last night... not w that d and qb.

Thanks for sharing your play before the game started.

Thanks for understanding I'm not sharing the play.... its not my play.... i am simply commenting on yer bud's comments on Twitter: "I don't understand the sports betting marketplace. Last night, ez to bet ATL -7 1h, -11.5 game.....NO TAKERS. Today, they rush to bet -13.." "Bettors are now CUTTING IN LINE to load up on ATL -14. Donkey Alert." I didn't see many w/ 14, pretty much 13.5s everywhere, but that is besides the point.... Also don't know what he means by "no takers" - obviously the line moved to 13.5 because there WERE takers. my point is.... this actually WOULD HAVE been a nice winner from fez if he gave out atl, one of very few this year which would have won comfortably.... Instead he ridicules the Atlanta side... the line move... and those who laid 13.5.... yet everyone who took it sat back and watched the fireworks and enjoyed a nice & ez winner.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;49216]Donkeys win, too. Doesn't mean they aren't donkeys.[/QUOTE] Not trying to be an ass Joel but what exactly is a donkey? It sure seems like every time I bet against them I get another ticket to add to my value drawer. Its almost a joke now that i pay my guy every week and he tells me how sharp I am and he cant believe I continue to lose and he keeps having to pay the guys betting the left side of the board.

[QUOTE=IceTea;49224]Thanks for understanding I'm not sharing the play.... its not my play.... i am simply commenting on yer bud's comments on Twitter: "I don't understand the sports betting marketplace. Last night, ez to bet ATL -7 1h, -11.5 game.....NO TAKERS. Today, they rush to bet -13.." "Bettors are now CUTTING IN LINE to load up on ATL -14. Donkey Alert." I didn't see many w/ 14, pretty much 13.5s everywhere, but that is besides the point.... Also don't know what he means by "no takers" - obviously the line moved to 13.5 because there WERE takers. my point is.... this actually WOULD HAVE been a nice winner from fez if he gave out atl, one of very few this year which would have won comfortably.... Instead he ridicules the Atlanta side... the line move... and those who laid 13.5.... yet everyone who took it sat back and watched the fireworks and enjoyed a nice & ez winner.[/QUOTE] On a serious note for Fezz, I dont understand how either Atl -11 or Jax +14 cant be a play. Seems like one or the other would be value. Is it that 11 to 14 are not key numbers?

[QUOTE=bkeiller;49226]Not trying to be an ass Joel but what exactly is a donkey? It sure seems like every time I bet against them I get another ticket to add to my value drawer. Its almost a joke now that i pay my guy every week and he tells me how sharp I am and he cant believe I continue to lose and he keeps having to pay the guys betting the left side of the board.[/QUOTE] Not at all :) My understanding is that a lot of sharps are getting killed this year. The only thing that's been successful for me has been 8 of clubs this year. (Seriously for a second: It has been insane how lucky those two threads of mine have been this year. That's not skill.) I've had to pay my guy, too. That's just how it goes. The variance of 55% is huge. I have more money now than I did 2.5 years ago, but I sure have less now than I did in September. We move on. To better answer your question, if a line moves away from you, just pass on the game. It's not like there is nothing else on the board. This brings up another point, which I'll start a new thread for. It's bad enough how much I've shit all over this thread, which is supposed to be about Week 15 :) To IceTea's point, it took a lot less money to move the line to -13' because it takes less to move the line earlier in the week.