NFL Week 6: Hou + 4.5, Cle +14

NFL Week 6: Hou + 4.5, Cle +14 Cincinnati if off a tough divisional win against Baltimore. They are not that much better than Houston, even at home. So I'll pick Hou at close, currently +4.5. Yes, Cleveland sucks. But they upset Buffalo last week, while Pittsburgh only beat lowly Detroit by 8. The current 14 points is too much in a divisional game. Cle at close. Hopefully these lines will improve, and I may discuss line movement later. YTD 1-1.

[QUOTE=KimLee;5642]Cincinnati if off a tough divisional win against Baltimore. They are not that much better than Houston, even at home. So I'll pick Hou at close, currently +4.5. Yes, Cleveland sucks. But they upset Buffalo last week, while Pittsburgh only beat lowly Detroit by 8. The current 14 points is too much in a divisional game. Cle at close. Hopefully these lines will improve, and I may discuss line movement later. YTD 1-1.[/QUOTE] Let's just hope that Houston doesn't have the ball at the one needing a score to cover...

[QUOTE=texansfan;5644]Let's just hope that Houston doesn't have the ball at the one needing a score to cover...[/QUOTE] You too eh? Stung a little while, but I'm over it...

Interesting Stats Cincinnati is leading its division with a 4-1 record. But it is ranked third in the division with (-11) net points and 13 touchdowns. Houston has (-5) net points and 14 touchdowns, albeit against an easier schedule. That's what I'm look for - going against glamour teams with overrated records.

looking to pull houston trigger at 4.5. now 5. am i missing something?

[QUOTE=roll your own;5917]looking to pull houston trigger at 4.5. now 5. am i missing something?[/QUOTE] Yes, I am grading everything at the closing line. So I pick against teams that are overbet by the public, and hope for line improvement. Fezzik similarly noted the Oakland +14 line should improve: lvasportsboards.com/showthread.php?t=949. Of course Fezzik also releases games that are quickly moving. The difficulty with monitoring these is that you must go back and look up the real-time line. Not all LVASports members have access to Don Best or similar services. So I will grade at the close, unless Fezzik releases earlier. In this case I will grade at Fezzik's line, which gives an external check on the number.

What is the point of this exercise Kimmy? Are you God's gift to sports betting? So talented that you can beat the closing number on NFL sides?

[QUOTE=Jafar;5926]What is the point of [trying to] beat the closing number on NFL sides?[/QUOTE] Good question. You are noting that if markets are efficient then they should quickly incorporate my post. In that case it will not be profitable to bet at close. I started posting picks because other posters are not keeping records nor explaining their monitoring process. The purpose is to illustrate these issues. Fezzik often plays steam. That's fine, but it doesn't help subscribers who see his picks after the numbers move. It comes down to this - Do you think your picks are profitable because you bet information faster than the lines move, or instead do you think your picks are profitable because you are fading public money?

Just got Houston +5' -105 at Jamaica. The 5 isn't key, but I'll take it. GLTUs

It looks like the public is liking Houston+5 or +5 1/2 too!