NFL Week 8 THREAD Picks

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;47686]As I like to say, I have more money in sportsbooks now than I did in July 2009, even after today. Not even the slightest bit concerned.[/QUOTE] while i am in the same spot (more $ now) that is completely irrelevant to being "concerned" or "satisfied" with the betting results. I give Fez a pass on some of these games too. Sea+3, yes, beat close #..... lots of other guys on it..... if they play tavaris all game, who knows.... whitehurst sucks.... but I'd strongly disagree with his statment that it's the "best bet of the week" - are you kidding me??? Dallas a bad play, Denver the worst. Nice play on the Rams. Nice play on Pit as well. The rest were quarters, several on the Skins who looked horrible.... I'm concerned w/ the results not for my overall bank account, yes, i can absorb losing weeks most of the season from Fez, which has been the case.... I loved last weekend, seemed very astute. But coming back taking terribly wrong sides in Dal, Den and Was are very concerning to me. What is it about these games that Fez felt worthy of plays, and not just plays, but multiple units on most. And that's even if we ignore Seattle, as I think they would have done better w Tvaris, but that play was not that great either, yet deemed best bet of the week. Some great vision in Stl and Pit. I'd feel a lot better if all the losing bets were closer instead of huge blowouts that we had no business (in hindsight) being on. It is what it is though. I thought Fez really had turned things after last week, but not the case.... i hope we see better results next week, starting w/ KC tonite!

Disgruntled dude gone. Everyone's happy when they win. No one's happy when they lose. I don't see a lot that varies from that.

[QUOTE=IceTea;47691]while i am in the same spot (more $ now) that is completely irrelevant to being "concerned" or "satisfied" with the betting results. [/QUOTE] I dunno. There are two reasons why people tend to be here. They either want to learn to fish or they want to be "given picks." Success of the first metric is they can more confidently make bets that they think they'll win. I think of 8 of clubs. I think of home-and-home totals in the NHL. Success of the second metric would be that you have more money now than you did then, right?

Seriously you guys need to be less results oriented. Sports betting is more about getting a good line than the result of the game. Given all the information that Fez had at the time (before the game), he made +EV plays. When you have a 10 vs a dealers 9 in blackjack, you the do the +EV thing and double down, don't you? You dont start complaining when you get a deuce on your double. All this complaining on this forum makes me think of that. Cant believe there are so many noobs on this forum especially when everyone is paying $99 a month. Sports betting is like stock trading... just trying to get the best price you can at a good value. There are no guarantees. Fezzik is still the man. All you naysayers need to stfu.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;47694]I dunno. There are two reasons why people tend to be here. They either want to learn to fish or they want to be "given picks." Success of the first metric is they can more confidently make bets that they think they'll win. I think of 8 of clubs. I think of home-and-home totals in the NHL. Success of the second metric would be that you have more money now than you did then, right?[/QUOTE] I have more $ now than then not from Fez picks. If you look at computr bob's thread, you will know that Fez lost (slightly) last yr and is down this year. As far as learning to fish, that's really waht I want from fez but please tell me where in this thread do you see anything to teach me or you? I can count on one hand the # of times fez actually shares a winning strategy or a solid trend that is right that I can use in the future. It's just picks. And that's cool if they win a lot, but they don't. I'm just telling you my feelings on ur statements. I realize: "fish" or "picks" - unfortunately it's been the worst of both - no fishing ,picks don't win. As to KCempire and his first post ever here: You're new to the board and you haven't seen what has transpired here since it's been pay. Yes, Fez does move #s on releases sometimes, so yes, being a member here may get you a solid # on some games. That's 100% true. But that does not mean the bet is +EV, nor does it mean you will win. Nor does it mean "Fez is the man", nor does it mean I should stfu. The goal of the board is to WIN. Simple. I can stand losing if I'm being given a bunch of solid info to put in my notes for the future. That definitely doesn't happen. Sure, 8 of clubs and all types of general stuff that is talked about ad nauseum on other boards as well. I'm talking about insight into Fez mind........and we don't get much more than picks. So ..... I'm far from a noob, I've been buying services maybe as long as youve been alive, i am not sure..... I know most lose, some win, and many are inconsistent. I can tell u this. I'd rather have played Phi -3.5 when the line moved to -3 than taken Dal+3.5 and line moved to +3. Some people get too caught up in that kind of thing. Was Was+6 a good bet because it closed at +4.5 or +4? To many on here, yes it was.... but the reality is no, it's not. I know good bets aren't bets that win all the time. Sometimes bad beats, sometimes injuries. nothing always works perfect..... I never bitch and moan for the sake of bitching and moaning. Im trying to constructively help Fez/anthony moderate the board. and I am saying, if fez is hitting around 50%, he'll get much better response if he helps out w/ situational advice, logic, or things like that to help offset losing weeks, rather than just losing and saying "calm down, no need to worry". KC - have you checked the YTD records here, or do u literally join yesterday???

I lost this week, but I'm giving out great, informed plays. Stay the course, and if you want to pile on me end of the year if this sort of thing continues, I will take it. But, the 11 vs. 8 double downs WILL start winning. I look at what I'm releasing and playing vs. others out there, and I can honestly say I'm on top of my game, as good as I've ever been. I'm not actively handicapping any other sport. I'm fully focussed on just the NFL. I listen to all the 'experts' out there wasting their time with tons of radio time, etc, and I shake my head. Ridiculous statements left and right, even in CFB where I'm not even actively hanidcpaping such as "ALA is -6.5 vs. Lsu. I think money keeps coming on ALA .....it likely closes 7, I think the total should be the lowest of the year at 37" "2 of my top 5 rated NFL teams are BUF and SF" "Sea +1 is my selection as a top bet" Mind boggling...............and THESE are the 'experts' What IS frustrating is that sports betting based on looking at pure results is so damn difficult. The really really good plays win 55%............so evaluating someone is so damn difficult with smaller samples. BUT ........when you actively talke to someone you CAN tell who has it and who doesn't. Someone contacted me with my best bet this week. I gave him Sea. Then I heard him give it out +1. PLUS 1. YOU NEED TO GET THE GOOD NUMBER. PERIOD. SUre, it's ez to dismiss this when no games are landing on the number, and say "damn it, how about the RIGHT SIDES!"........BUT THERE IS NO RIGHT SIDE BEFORE THE KICKOFF!! AFTER it's ez to say Eagles -3.5! Or Rams +12.5......... Or hell Rams pk or Eagles -14. Bottom line, BEFORE THE KICKOFF Dallas +3.5 OR Eagles -3+105 were both solid bets..............if somone showed me an Eagles -2.5 bet I'd say "GREAT BET". HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT, YOU GAVE OUT Dallas? 3 weight? I would respond.........I think 3 was correct. Both bets looks great, and will win 55% of the time.

[QUOTE=IceTea;47696]I have more $ now than then not from Fez picks. If you look at computr bob's thread, you will know that Fez lost (slightly) last yr and is down this year. As far as learning to fish, that's really waht I want from fez but please tell me where in this thread do you see anything to teach me or you? I can count on one hand the # of times fez actually shares a winning strategy or a solid trend that is right that I can use in the future. It's just picks. And that's cool if they win a lot, but they don't. I'm just telling you my feelings on ur statements. I realize: "fish" or "picks" - unfortunately it's been the worst of both - no fishing ,picks don't win.[/QUOTE] I think IceTea makes a good point here. There is not much discussion about strategies, systems, methods on this board. I know some may not have the time to post threads on certain handicapping strategies each week, but some insight every now and then would be helpful information I think. The Seattle pick this last week is a prime example that comes to mind. When Fezzik posted it as a 4 weight I was scared to back the play on such a bad team. Yet everywhere I looked last week Seattle was on the minds for many and the change in the line reflected this. Certainly there must have been many systems or numbers that supported this play, but all I kept seeing was a team with 2 bad quarterbacks and no running game. I am not new to this, but basically as square as they come and I am always wondering what goes into some of these "professional" plays which turn out to be so wrong. I am not here to criticize the picks and its easy to look back on it now, but maybe some more information as to the insight of the picks even after the picks are posted will help. I know I value the discussion on here; I try and take part when I have an opinion, or at least give an insight to what the "squares" are playing.

[QUOTE=KCEMPIRE;47695]Seriously you guys need to be less results oriented. Sports betting is more about getting a good line than the result of the game. Given all the information that Fez had at the time (before the game), he made +EV plays. When you have a 10 vs a dealers 9 in blackjack, you the do the +EV thing and double down, don't you? You dont start complaining when you get a deuce on your double. All this complaining on this forum makes me think of that. Cant believe there are so many noobs on this forum especially when everyone is paying $99 a month. Sports betting is like stock trading... just trying to get the best price you can at a good value. There are no guarantees. Fezzik is still the man. All you naysayers need to stfu.[/QUOTE] I only saw one guy bitchin, and he's long gone.

[QUOTE=KCEMPIRE;47695]Seriously you guys need to be less results oriented. Sports betting is more about getting a good line than the result of the game. Given all the information that Fez had at the time (before the game), he made +EV plays. When you have a 10 vs a dealers 9 in blackjack, you the do the +EV thing and double down, don't you? You dont start complaining when you get a deuce on your double. All this complaining on this forum makes me think of that. Cant believe there are so many noobs on this forum especially when everyone is paying $99 a month. Sports betting is like stock trading... just trying to get the best price you can at a good value. There are no guarantees. Fezzik is still the man. All you naysayers need to stfu.[/QUOTE] I would always rather be on the winning side of a closing line rather than have a losing ticket that had great value. What makes a play good value? Just getting the best of a line? The Seattle, Washington, and Denver picks were good value? In all seriousness though I have always debated the importance getting the best of a number. I am sure it is probably much more important to the professional handicapper, but I do not believe it is going to turn a losing sports bettor to a winner or vice versa. I know long term the theory is that you can not win by constantly getting the worst of a number, but how many of those plays would have won with a number that you could have got on Wednesday vs placing the bet on game-day? I have been tracking my own personal losing plays that would have won if I had gotten a better number (regardless of whether or not I even would have had access to that number) and thus far for NCAA and NFL the percentage of these plays is less than a tenth of one percent. Furthermore if I had chosen to not make a play because of a line move that I missed I would have lost out on many winners that would have affected my bankroll far more than this tenth of a percent that I lost. In my opinion, the importance of "getting the best of a number" is losing its importance, or at least it seems to be less important right now in this market. I may not know what I am talking about, but things today are different than they were even just 5 years ago. My theory may just get tested tonight if indeed this game ends with San Diego winning by exactly 3; than all of those tickets that had KC +4 or even 3.5 are "good value" winning tickets. But what if KC wins outright, I would much rather have the KC +3 EV which I could find today, rather than the +4 -110 that was hard to find last week. Just my thoughts.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;47698]I lost this week, but I'm giving out great, informed plays. Stay the course, and if you want to pile on me end of the year if this sort of thing continues, I will take it. But, the 11 vs. 8 double downs WILL start winning. I look at what I'm releasing and playing vs. others out there, and I can honestly say I'm on top of my game, as good as I've ever been. I'm not actively handicapping any other sport. I'm fully focussed on just the NFL. I listen to all the 'experts' out there wasting their time with tons of radio time, etc, and I shake my head. Ridiculous statements left and right, even in CFB where I'm not even actively hanidcpaping such as "ALA is -6.5 vs. Lsu. I think money keeps coming on ALA .....it likely closes 7, I think the total should be the lowest of the year at 37" "2 of my top 5 rated NFL teams are BUF and SF" "Sea +1 is my selection as a top bet" Mind boggling...............and THESE are the 'experts' What IS frustrating is that sports betting based on looking at pure results is so damn difficult. The really really good plays win 55%............so evaluating someone is so damn difficult with smaller samples. BUT ........when you actively talke to someone you CAN tell who has it and who doesn't. Someone contacted me with my best bet this week. I gave him Sea. Then I heard him give it out +1. PLUS 1. YOU NEED TO GET THE GOOD NUMBER. PERIOD. SUre, it's ez to dismiss this when no games are landing on the number, and say "damn it, how about the RIGHT SIDES!"........BUT THERE IS NO RIGHT SIDE BEFORE THE KICKOFF!! AFTER it's ez to say Eagles -3.5! Or Rams +12.5......... Or hell Rams pk or Eagles -14. Bottom line, BEFORE THE KICKOFF Dallas +3.5 OR Eagles -3+105 were both solid bets..............if somone showed me an Eagles -2.5 bet I'd say "GREAT BET". HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT, YOU GAVE OUT Dallas? 3 weight? I would respond.........I think 3 was correct. Both bets looks great, and will win 55% of the time.[/QUOTE] Maybe I am too square to appreciate the subtleties and would love to hear more discussion on it but I dont see how if we have Dallas as +3.5 as a 3 weight then Phil -2.5 is a great bet. Seems like too much weight is placed on a half point here or there. And if that is the case it seems like we should have bets flying all over the place when a line moves a point as the other side is now a great bet. Also, if both bets above, were to win 55% of the time then what distinguishes between a 1 weight and a 4 weight??