NFL Week 8 THREAD Picks

[QUOTE=anthony;47709]Why do you think we don't track it. These arguments will go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on. And that's a generous truncation.[/QUOTE] You're acting like it's difficult. Just look at Pinnacle, look at CRIS, look at Greek - give yourself the best number, and post it. Posting lines that followers can get is the least you could do, especially since you're charging $100/month.

[QUOTE=KCEMPIRE;47712]I dont understand when you say this. There is no winning side, until the game ends. Nobody is psychic enough to know what the winning side will be. Why do you think ESPN spends 24 hours a day talking about what the right side is. Trying to figure out the right side is what makes sportsbetting so intriguing. It is why donkeys bet sports... cuz they think they can be on the winning side. The truth.. there is no right side. A team can easily over perform as under perform. The saints can have a bad day and lose to the rams, the cowboys can not have shown up to the game and get blown out. Nobody knows! All we can do is try our best to get the greatest value. Having said that, I do think Fezziks plays are all +EV given the knowledge before the game. I like Fezzik because he is not scared to pull the trigger on very bad teams. They are +EV long term, however, I think that betting bad teams has a lot more variance than betting more solid teams. There is a lot more unexpected BS that can happen if you bet crappy teams like Seattle or Rams or Broncos. I think the +EV is already factored into the line, but variance is not. I think these kinds of bets will stretch your long term out because of more crazy factors that can occur during the game (because they suck).. That's why squares like to bet on Tom Brady all the time because they dont have to deal with things that cause great variance. Of course what they are missing is although they have less variance and they get to see a more solid performance, their line has -EV value. If you are so scared of variance I recommend not betting the bad teams to shorten your long term. Bet only the picks that seem to be ok teams only. I, however, will continue to treasure Fezziks bad team plays and see them as opportunities. Even when you watch a game like the cowboys last night and feel like you want to throw up cuz your bet was dead even before the 2nd quarter.. Its easy to say you should not have bet it After the fact. But there is no way to know. We place our bets BEFORE the game, NOT AFTER. Just place the mathematical bet that you think has the best value.. After that whatever will be will be.[/QUOTE] I was just trying to say that I would rather have winning plays versus good value plays. I know there is no winning side until the game ends. I think you make some very good points but beware when you continue backing these bad teams. The 6 worst teams in the NFL last year (Carolina, Buffalo, Cincy, Denver, Arizona, and Cleveland) were a combined 34-60 ATS. Buffalo was the only one above 500 at 8-7-1. I am not sure if the trend will be as strong this year, but it could be as it seems there is as big a gap as ever between the good and bad teams. Is this factored into the line? Of course, but sometimes the line can just not be made big enough.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;47698] "ALA is -6.5 vs. Lsu. I think money keeps coming on ALA .....it likely closes 7, I think the total should be the lowest of the year at 37"[/QUOTE] For my enjoyment what dumbass said this? Alabama is the dead nut right side in this game and but there is no shot in the world this gets to 7.

What did I think Dallas +3.5 was in terms of a win rate? 55%. THAT is one fine bet! What is Dallas +2.5? 44.5%! FAV by 3 wins the game by 10.5%. It's no secret I spend WAY more time on games lined at 3ish since I know how powerful it can be to get on the bets with the key hooks.

8 and 9 are dead numbers i will often bet a team +8 when I missed even +9. It didn't cost me much in expectation, since 9 hits only 1% of the time..........fav by 9. Vs. 10.5% of the time fav by 3.

[QUOTE=IrishTim;47715]You're acting like it's difficult. Just look at Pinnacle, look at CRIS, look at Greek - give yourself the best number, and post it. Posting lines that followers can get is the least you could do, especially since you're charging $100/month.[/QUOTE] Sure. Thanks.

[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;47714]I didn't really see any of these comments as argumentative, but more as discussion. I know that sometimes it can be difficult to interpret tone from text but surely using this board for discussion (even if it is argumentative) is what it is for.[/QUOTE] Said posts have been deleted.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;47719]8 and 9 are dead numbers i will often bet a team +8 when I missed even +9. It didn't cost me much in expectation, since 9 hits only 1% of the time..........fav by 9. Vs. 10.5% of the time fav by 3.[/QUOTE] Unless, of course, you are taking the Jets versus NE at +7.5 or +8 and they lose by 9. ;)

[QUOTE=IrishTim;47715]You're acting like it's difficult. Just look at Pinnacle, look at CRIS, look at Greek - give yourself the best number, and post it. Posting lines that followers can get is the least you could do, especially since you're charging $100/month.[/QUOTE] This is correct. The issue is that the vast majority of Fezz' plays are made after he waits for market confirmation. So if he likes Dallas, he will wait for key books to start moving and then grab the Dallas +3.5 Which is pretty smart betting but makes for less than stellar ability to follow the plays. I agree though that the prices listed are on the aggressive side

Just curious. What would you make tonight's MNF "official line"?