NFL week of 10-18-09

NFL week of 10-18-09 215) OV 43.5 217) Rams +10 219) Ov 47 All 1% plays. These are early plays I expect to move, and are based on the KISS method. The 2 overs we have games where the QBs are facing weak secondaries, will have plenty of time to dance around, send a text message, pour a white russian, and then throw the ball. Carson Palmer had all day vs little ravens and feel Baltm will move ball vs over rated Vikes. Brees and Manning both face weak secondaries and can pad their stats in a shootout. Jax can not lay dbl digs to anyone. Good Luck and keep plays in line, as this is the NFL.

Aside from betting on the horrid lambs, they look good.

Like the over in Ravens game also. This Ravens defense isn't the typical Ravens defense of years past. Really like Cincy, Baltimore, Tenessee and a little bit of Denver this week in NFL. Still looking closely at Saints and Bears also. Good luck!!

[QUOTE=Iceman;5611]Like the over in Ravens game also. This Ravens defense isn't the typical Ravens defense of years past. Really like Cincy, Baltimore, Tenessee and a little bit of Denver this week in NFL. Still looking closely at Saints and Bears also. Good luck!![/QUOTE] Dog has won every Concinnati game ATS. Cincinnati a poor favorite. Cincinnati coming off a big win vs Baltomore, while Houston coming off a tough loss vs Arizona. Emotional advantage Houston. Baltimore a good dog, coming off two close losses (should have won the NE game). St Louis outgained Minnesota. Minnesota was +3 in TOs. Minnesota not great at home. Emotional advantage Baltimore. Tennessee has fallen apart, and NE coming off a tough loss. Advantage NE. Denver is improved, but should have lost to Cincinnati, and are coming off two big wins at home, and are now going on the road vs a rested favorite (rested favorites on a 27-10 run ATS). NYG simply great on the road (31-10), but NO a rested favorite, and are on a 8-2 run at home). Emotional advantage NO. Chicago rested, and Atlanta coming off a huge win. Emotional advantage Chicago.

Let me add my reasoning I guess. This time of the year it is about strength of schedule in NFL, IMO. Espically this season more then ever with teams so far apart: Cincy- line is too short, IMO. Houston is average at best. Awful defense and now on the road, bad combo. Cincy has played denver,gb, pitt, cle and balt- which amounts to a very tough sked and they have looked good doing it. The Bengals are for real even though most don't know it. Houston has played jets, jax, ten, oak and zona and have been outplayed in their fair share. I think we look back at end of the season and realize this line should have been over a touchdown. Think it closes up another point or two also by kickoff so I say bet it now. Baltimore- agree with you on baltimore. Losers of two in a row they will be focused considering they could and should have won one or both of those games. Minny has played quite possibily the easiest sked in NFL thus far with cleveland, detroit, sf, gb and st.louis. Who wouldn't be 4-1 against that group?(and Minny is a borderline hail mary away from being 4-1). Looking deeper at the boxscores the Vikes are very average and that might be giving them credit considering who they have played against. They are winning mainly because of turnovers (like you said) more then anything. Been getting their share of bounces. Also good time to bet against them as the public/media all over Favre and crew. Big believer in playing the up/down theory in the NFL (playing teams who are down (underacheived) from the week before, who are not in that awful group against teams that are up (overachieved) from week before), classic case here. Tennesee- Don't think they are nearly as bad as others think right now. In fact all I hear is they have quit, etc... Not saying they haven't played bad but this team is still somewhat talented. They just happened to run into the best team in football the other night, the Colts, IMO. They have played a tough sked so far with pitt, houston, jets, jax and indy but 4 of the first 6 have been road games (most in league), very tough stretch they are in. Turnovers have also killed them this year. This team will eventually come back around. I think the time to buy the titans is now as everyone has given up on them. My main point is they have legit excuses for their poor play. Double digit dogs in nfl are for the likes of the raiders and rams not for teams like the Titans. Pats playing their 4th home game of the year already (most in league). Sure it's been a tough group but they haven't looked like an top flight team this year. Probably should be worse record wise then they are with somewhat lucky wins against Bills and Ravens. These two teams (Pats and Titans) are much closer then percieved, IMO. Denver- like I said I like them the least but they have been very good to me and based off strictly numbers they should be favored. I think this line rises a bit up till gametime and I will grab them then at their peak. SD will be a huge public side I think as people feel the Broncos are "due" to lose. aren't as good as they are, etc... Might be wrong on all that we shall see. Either way SD favored over one of the best teams in football, no thanks. Denver has a bye after this game, one last shot on primetime and keeping their streak alive. Chance to show the nation one last time. Think they have to much talent and pride to lay an egg here. Won't clog up the Dude's thread anymore with other 2 but seems we agree on them OS. Sorry Dude.:D

Late game play Bears +4 -105, 1% play Bears have yielded 76,105,103, and 90 yards rushing TY in their 4 games. When a team outrushes their opp by 30+ yards, it is a long term winner ATS. Will fade the late money. Good Luck