NFL Week6 plays

[QUOTE=Fezzik;54155]Waiting on SF, don't want to play into a falling line. But I will be on the 49ers eventually.[/QUOTE] Heard you on ESPN1100 with RJ about SF, will wait for official pick..

Let's 1 weight SF -4.5. I don't want to go crazy, as we might get -4. and '5' is a dead number.

Ths line is showing -6.5. Wait?

Never chase steam. If anything, hope for +7.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;54164]Never chase steam. If anything, hope for +7.[/QUOTE] Def agree with not chasing the steam although I am unclear as to why he would hope for +7. I was under the impression that if you missed the play you just sat you dont bet the OTHER side after a move?? What am I missing? Thanks.

If -4' is a 1-unit play, then +7 is worth at least half a unit. If I understand correctly, we're not taking middles for the sake of taking middles but because both bets are +EV on their own.

Interesting phenomena watching the NYG-SF game odds ... Many Offshore's 4' - 5's and LV books 6-6' now. My offshore is 6' on SF, other out doesn't even have it on the board. Thoughts?

I would think that books move off of 5 very quickly because it's not a football number like 4 and 6 are. No point being on 5. [QUOTE=B Brutus Bear;54167]Interesting phenomena watching the NYG-SF game odds ... Many Offshore's 4' - 5's and LV books 6-6' now. My offshore is 6' on SF, other out doesn't even have it on the board. Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;54166]If -4' is a 1-unit play, then +7 is worth at least half a unit. If I understand correctly, we're not taking middles for the sake of taking middles but because both bets are +EV on their own.[/QUOTE] That was what I was trying to understand. How far it has to be to be +EV? Not trying to be argumentative at all but if that is the case then virtually anytime a line moved 2 points we would have a play on one side or the other. If Fezz made this game 6 and the line came 4 1/2 and that was a play Im wondering if it had come 7 1/2 it would also be a play??

The half-point calculator ([url]https://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/[/url]) tells us how much each half point is worth. So while a general rule of thumb that "two points is enough" may not be accurate, you can use that tool to figure out how many points it really does take. Now this of course assumes no new information. If a line moves three points because a key player is hit by a commuter train, the original premise that made the original bet +EV may no longer be true.