No/gb thursday night game My take on the game tonight. No Best Bet for me. I usually have a pretty good read on GB. Good luck with whatever you do.
[B]GREEN BAY –4 New Orleans 47.5[/B]
NO took a step back last year running the ball, averaging just 4.0ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr. They threw the ball better than average, gaining 6.5yps against teams allowing just 6.1yps. Overall on offense, they averaged 5.6yppl against teams giving up 5.3yppl. They were below average on defense allowing 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl.
GB struggled to run the ball without Ryan Grant last year, averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr but they threw the ball exceptionally well, gaining 7.1yps against teams allowing just 6.2yps. Overall on offense they gained 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr but were terrific against the pass, allowing just 5.4yps against 6.1yps and allowing 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situation on this game. Since the NFL went to the format of having the SB champ host the Thursday night kick off game, the SB champ is now 5-1-1.
The Packers have the better defense by far and away in this game. It’s hard to gauge if preseason results can mean anything but NO was horrible defending the run in the preseason, allowing 5.0ypr. Even if we assume the offenses are equal in this game and I would rate the Packers a little better than NO, there is a huge difference in the defenses. NO will also miss DE Will Smith, who is serving the first of his two game suspension. NO will also be without WR Lance Moore in this game.
GB gets back Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant, who they were without from the 5th and 1st week of the season last year. The numbers on offense for GB were already better without those two players. At home GB is good for 24-30 points a game. If NO can score 20 or more they have a chance to cover. If they can’t they will not cover this game. GB scored 28 or more in six of their eight home games last year. They scored only 20 against Miami but were banged up in that game and the Bears, who have defended them decently the last few years, allowed just 10 points.
It’s hard to say how good the Saints are or were last year. They were beaten pretty badly at Seattle in the playoffs 41-36 by a bad Seahawks team. NO didn’t play very good competition on the road last year. They were beaten 30-24 at Baltimore and defeated Atlanta 17-14. Other than that, they didn’t face a playoff team on the road last year. They allowed 22 points at SF, 30 at Arizona, 27 at Dallas, 30 at Cincinnati, 30 at Baltimore and 41 at Seattle in the playoffs. Their only decent performances on the road were allowing six points at TB but TB didn’t have two of their best three skill players – Blount and Benn. They allowed three points at Carolina, which doesn’t count and they allowed only 14 at Atlanta, which was a solid performance. But, they allowed 27 to Atlanta earlier in the year.
I don’t see how NO can hold GB to less than 27 points in this game unless they get some key turnovers. Can they score 24 or so to at least cover? It’s possible but I would lean to the team with the better defense by far and probably the better offense as well. Numbers favor GB by six points and predict 46 points. [B]GREEN BAY 27 NEW ORLEANS 20[/B]
