NY Jets +9.5 -105 over New England

NY Jets +9.5 -105 over New England I think the risk is this comes down to 7.5 versus goes to 10...Jet's just played their best game of the year at Indy. They are running the ball well and playing solid defense. This team is live here...

Don't bet +9.5 ever. 9 is the deadest of the NFL numbers. The risk of it dropping to 8.5 is minimal vs. the chance to shag a +10 (or 10.5). If you bet +9.5 YOU MUST BE SURE you won't get 10. "everyone" knows the fav's are the side to look at in the Rd2 of the playoffs...... let's wait on this one.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;37113]9 is the deadest of the NFL numbers. The risk of it dropping to 8.5 is minimal vs. the chance to shag a +10 (or 10.5). If you bet +9.5 YOU MUST BE SURE you won't get 10. "everyone" knows the fav's are the side to look at in the Rd2 of the playoffs...... let's wait on this one.[/QUOTE] Thanks for the feedback. This isn't my best skill as I'm a pac 10 soccer guy so anything for me in the NFL is small, but still want to do it the best way possible...Thanks for the input...

Fezz, I also recall you telling us not to bet +34.5 because the squares would drive it up to 35 on a Washington St game. Closed 32 or something, never touched 35.

[QUOTE=IrishTim;37125]Fezz, I also recall you telling us not to bet +34.5 because the squares would drive it up to 35 on a Washington St game. Closed 32 or something, never touched 35.[/QUOTE] Completely apples and oranges. College line moves aren't the same as the NFL. 35 isn't a key number in CFB like 10 is in NFL. There are a few more squares betting the Pats in the playoffs than a lopsided PAC 10 game. One college outlier when a line didn't tick up from a 34.5 to 35 is worthless statistically.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;37113]9 is the deadest of the NFL numbers. The risk of it dropping to 8.5 is minimal vs. the chance to shag a +10 (or 10.5). If you bet +9.5 YOU MUST BE SURE you won't get 10. "everyone" knows the fav's are the side to look at in the Rd2 of the playoffs...... let's wait on this one.[/QUOTE] Early money is coming on the Jets...Game is now +9 -113...I'm learning but from a process standpoint I should have waited, but it's good to know my instincts about the line moves have been really sharp lately and as you say Fez...What are the 10 rules you use to judge a good sports bettor? 1. How do they do against the closing number... 2-10. Refer to number 1...

NOW you can play +9.......... You didn't lose'anything', and the line has started free falling.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;37140]You didn't lose'anything', and the line has started free falling.[/QUOTE] Agree...I'm just a padawan trying to get better at the NFL side of my sports betting as I am a lifetime loser in the sport and I freely admit it. So I'm willing to do whatever it takes to always try and improve...But I do feel good that my instincts about the money were correct so I do want to celebrate that...

Teaser Protection... [QUOTE=Fezzik;37140]You didn't lose'anything', and the line has started free falling.[/QUOTE] Will Pinny move this game off 9 before kickoff as they don't want people teasing 8.5 down to 2.5? If not, then why are they still at NY Jets +9 -113...Go to 8.5 - 108 and make it the real spread...

[QUOTE=Fezzik;37113]9 is the deadest of the NFL numbers. The risk of it dropping to 8.5 is minimal vs. the chance to shag a +10 (or 10.5). If you bet +9.5 YOU MUST BE SURE you won't get 10. "everyone" knows the fav's are the side to look at in the Rd2 of the playoffs...... let's wait on this one.[/QUOTE] I would bet my left nut that this game never sees 10...Even if you announced NE as your lock of your lifetime.:p JETS JETS JETS!