NY Jets +9.5 -105 over New England

[QUOTE=ComptrBob;37127]Completely apples and oranges. College line moves aren't the same as the NFL. 35 isn't a key number in CFB like 10 is in NFL. There are a few more squares betting the Pats in the playoffs than a lopsided PAC 10 game. One college outlier when a line didn't tick up from a 34.5 to 35 is worthless statistically.[/QUOTE] Of course a sample of one is worthless statistically and your point about square money is well taken. Just taken a playful shot at Fezz while making the case for betting the Jets at the current number. No one would argue that the CFB 35 = the NFL 10, but I believe it's just a guessing game when you think lines will move in the "wrong" direction and to wait blindly (i.e. without some indicator of a line's direction like Grande, MB, Pinny, etc.) because it's "close" to a key number is foolish. And btw, the sample in favor of this logic now up to 2. :D

[QUOTE=Fezzik;37140]You didn't lose'anything', and the line has started free falling.[/QUOTE] Fez... So at what point in time do you then say..."OK, this game is going to 8.5 and not 10? I played it on Saturday night at +9.5 -105 and now at Pinny it's -9.5 -119. So at about when it goes from -105 to about -110, I can say "ok, this is probably not coming back". Or should I hit it with partial at that point, and then more when it's at -113, then -115. By all accounts, this line has no intention of getting to 10, as the M currently has it at 7.5 and most places in town are at 8.5

I just took some +9 -110 and +8.5 -108. Will wait and see if the squares steam it back the other way. If they do I will add more. I generally agree with Fezzik's main point that losing the 9 doesn't cost much, but juice does, so if you are/were betting at a book like Pinnacle which moves juice, then betting your +9.5 -105 might have made sense. Obviously +9.5 -105 is significantly better than the +9 -110 I am getting now. This puts you in the somewhat ironic position of being forced to bet early if the sharp (reduced juice) book has the best number while you can afford to wait if a square book has the best number. For example if Pin was hanging +9.5 -113 when you posted and BM and Greek both had 9.5 flat, there is no hurry in betting. In this case, we know that BM and Greek won't move their juice and they won't move directly to 8, and if they only move to 9 or 8.5, we haven't lost much. The most likely thing that happens is we see the market move a little more and one of them drops to 9 and we go and grab the last 9.5 (or even better +10.5 -130).

[QUOTE=Rumpelstiltskin;37383]I just took some +9 -110 and +8.5 -108. Will wait and see if the squares steam it back the other way. If they do I will add more. I generally agree with Fezzik's main point that losing the 9 doesn't cost much, but juice does, so if you are/were betting at a book like Pinnacle which moves juice, then betting your +9.5 -105 might have made sense. Obviously +9.5 -105 is significantly better than the +9 -110 I am getting now. This puts you in the somewhat ironic position of being forced to bet early if the sharp (reduced juice) book has the best number while you can afford to wait if a square book has the best number. For example if Pin was hanging +9.5 -113 when you posted and BM and Greek both had 9.5 flat, there is no hurry in betting. In this case, we know that BM and Greek won't move their juice and they won't move directly to 8, and if they only move to 9 or 8.5, we haven't lost much. The most likely thing that happens is we see the market move a little more and one of them drops to 9 and we go and grab the last 9.5 (or even better +10.5 -130).[/QUOTE] Great feedback Rumpel...really keen insight at gaming the market of the pointspread as much as the handicap of the affair...Thanks for the contribution...

Vegas Inisder Article suggesting Jets getting the sharp action... [url]https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/1089359[/url] Here's a snippet... “I think there is value with the Jets this weekend, plus-9 is too many,” Colbert explained, “Even though they got rocked in that Monday night game, the Sharp money was with the Jets at plus-4 in that game. We’ve had minus-7 ½ with the Patriots up all week and have had no takers leading me to believe that is closer to the right number since everyone else is at 8 ½ or 9.” As of Thursday afternoon, there weren’t even any minus-8‘s out there. If there was anyone out there with large money that liked New England -- regardless of the time of week -- that bet would have been made already at the M, and it hasn’t. It doesn’t mean that the Jets are going to win or cover, but it does definitely give some insight to what the sharpest bettors in town are thinking, people who win more often than not with large straight bets.

Or they're organized enough to wait. I picture them like OPEC :)

my local, I am in boston, has not moved the line all week pats-10 (115)

[QUOTE=Rumpelstiltskin;37383]... I generally agree with Fezzik's main point that losing the 9 doesn't cost much, but juice does, so if you are/were betting at a book like Pinnacle which moves juice, then betting your +9.5 -105 might have made sense. Obviously +9.5 -105 is significantly better than the +9 -110 I am getting now. .[/QUOTE] This is a great topic. And I agree, it's not cut and dry with reduced juice. Also, even full juice books take more pressure to move to a key number (9.5 up to 10) than they do to move to a non key number. It's not a situation where you are 50-50 to either move to 10 or 9 from a line of 9.5. Fezz's point is correct though in that it only takes 1 book (depending your bankroll) to make the move upwards for you to take advantage and get a rogue 10...But again, it's far less likely that a lone book moves to a key number on their own than they move to a non key number on their own. Additionally, it really seems this year anything that is set just above or below the teaser range (9,9.5 or 3) has been much more likely to come into teaser range later in the week than move the other way. 9's fall to 8's rather than move up to 10. 3 +100's move to 2.5.

[QUOTE=samrothstein;37398]my local, I am in boston, has not moved the line all week pats-10 (115)[/QUOTE] Sounds like you should pound him for the Jets for as much as you can get down...

[QUOTE=IrishTim;37207] but I believe it's just a guessing game when you think lines will move in the "wrong" direction and to wait blindly (i.e. without some indicator of a line's direction like Grande, MB, Pinny, etc.) because it's "close" to a key number is foolish. And btw, the sample in favor of this logic now up to 2. :D[/QUOTE] Seeing as how I bet the Jets +10 -110 yesterday at Lucky's and it was fairly WA offshore as well (although certainly not universal), Netto was incorrect when he predicted the risk of 7.5 was greater than the risk to 10 (never seemed to break through 8.5). However, predicting these moves is certainly dicey and if he truly thought 10 flat would probably never show, I wouldn't criticise him taking the 9.5. And btw, the sample in favor of this logic is now back down to 1.