Definitely a case by case basis like Fezz has pointed out. College teams vary a lot in how many "up for grabs" games there are on the schedule.
I'll use my Longhorns for an example with a 12 game schedule. At first the line of 10 wins over -130 looked reasonable enough for the books, but the weakness of the schedule and forecasted strength of the team has moved the line up. Games like UL Monroe, Wyoming, home vs. T Tech with a new QB, UTEP, UCF, and Texas AnM are all but locked in wins for Texas. If they do happen to screw up one of those games, the odds are that something has gone so wrong with the team that they have already screwed up more games... Kansas and Baylor are close to the same thing. They aren't lock games, but are close when thought of "in the swing of things".
Basically, we are left with a schedule of: A pure 50-50 toss up vs Oklahaoma. a following road game vs a depleted Mizzou, and then a tough 3rd game @ Ok State. Reasonably, UT can be seen as possibly going 12-0, 11-1, 10-2, or maybe 9-3. Unlike NFL teams, there is almost zero chance for a .500 W-L record here. 9-3 Seems like easily the least likely of those 4 choices. I might be optimistic, but 10-2 and 12-0 seem close to equally as likely. A 10-2 season would be a huge dissapointment for Texas. A 9-3 season would probably mean Colt McCoy misses a lot of the schedule. That 1/2 win from 10 to 10.5 might be worth 100 cents or more IMO since under 10 almost eliminates your chance for a losing bet.
