ONLY one guy saw this THU game coming

ONLY one guy saw this THU game coming only cizzle saw this THU game play on ATL, no one else on ATL or OVER... we all have to do a better job finding wins in PRO Football thread

[QUOTE=larryphelps;49210]only cizzle saw this THU game play on ATL, no one else on ATL or OVER... we all have to do a better job finding wins in PRO Football thread[/QUOTE] I saw a tweet from Fezz that the donkeys were cutting in line to bet Atl -14. At this point I am truly confused as to whether being a donkey is a bad thing. Line goes from 11 to 14 and they blow them out. Isnt that the MARKET being right? Seems like when I get value and am against the donkeys they win and when the smart money moves the line from 11 to 14 they win also. Who is smart and who is donkey?

I should have been on ATL-11, and taken back Jax +14, whiff. I actually liked Atl at -11, but some of the guys I respect leaned the other way, so I passed. My point was that anyone paying ANY attention saw the sharp money starting to roll in the night before on ATL ........so THAT was the time to grab it, not the day of the game -13.5. SURE, it's always ez AFTER the fact to say "OBVIOUS.......ATL! ........at ANY Price!".

[QUOTE=Fezzik;49233]I should have been on ATL-11, and taken back Jax +14, whiff. I actually liked Atl at -11, but some of the guys I respect leaned the other way, so I passed. My point was that anyone paying ANY attention saw the sharp money starting to roll in the night before on ATL ........so THAT was the time to grab it, not the day of the game -13.5. SURE, it's always ez AFTER the fact to say "OBVIOUS.......ATL! ........at ANY Price!".[/QUOTE] i'm nobody but i think your problem sometimes is you aren't doing your own handicapping. in other words - what # did u have on the game? clearly you didn't have a #. Otherwise, how could you possibly like atl-11 and jac+14. even if your # was 13, neither bet gives a lot of value. my point is, maybe some people (on Monday) had a number of atl -16 or -17, and so they felt fine laying 11, 12, 13 and 13.5. Obviously their #s were right.... all of this petty "market capping" stuff ends up making people look dumb more often than not. I'm w/ bkeiller - it is OK to have an opinion on a game. It is OK to lose some... but it's stupid to continue w/ these "i would take -11 and +14", or even worse, i've seen "I would take -3 and +4". I mean.... how often does any of that actually win? It just makes you delay giving a real opinion and having to deal w being wrong.

[QUOTE=IceTea;49234]i'm nobody but i think your problem sometimes is you aren't doing your own handicapping. in other words - what # did u have on the game? clearly you didn't have a #. Otherwise, how could you possibly like atl-11 and jac+14. even if your # was 13, neither bet gives a lot of value. my point is, maybe some people (on Monday) had a number of atl -16 or -17, and so they felt fine laying 11, 12, 13 and 13.5. Obviously their #s were right.... all of this petty "market capping" stuff ends up making people look dumb more often than not. I'm w/ bkeiller - it is OK to have an opinion on a game. It is OK to lose some... but it's stupid to continue w/ these "i would take -11 and +14", or even worse, i've seen "I would take -3 and +4". I mean.... how often does any of that actually win? It just makes you delay giving a real opinion and having to deal w being wrong.[/QUOTE] In this case Fezz's explanation doesn't bother me so much and appreciate hearing his thoughts on the matter. It sounds like Fezz did make his own number and it was higher than 11 but some guys he trusts liked the other side and I can respect that he passed. I can also understand that even at 14 he didn't like Jax as just a straight play since he had passed on Atl. I would also agree that if he had taken -11 then taking some back at +14 could have made some sense. My confusion again really arises between what is smart money and what is donkey money? Maybe last night was just one of those rare occasions when they are on the same side. One thing I think would be interesting to know is whether the guys that Fezz respects liked Jax +11 were HAMMERING them at +14 or just saying we have a lemon. Seems like if you like em at 11 you should LOVE em at 14.

I know I'm having a terrible year, BUT 1. I and my NFL expert make a number on every game THE WEEK BEFORE 2. We redo the numbers Sunday 4pm 3. We tweak the numbers Monday am 4. We get trends/feedback Monday/Tuesday 5. We read up on Various people's opinions W -Sat While constantly watching the marketplace.......... The vast majority of the numbers we make match the market within a point ..........

Quick question, Fez, when you "make a number" are you trying to predict what the line will be, or what the outcome will be? Or something entirely different? Being within a point all the time seems to indicate almost no value exists unless you are surround the 3's or 7's. I just don't believe that. As an example, in college football on Saturday I thought San Diego state would be favored by 10, and it's 4. Obviously I was way off on my line, but it also makes me believe I am getting great value. I know less exists in the nfl, but the point seems the same. Can you help me out here? Thanks, Peter

If you can bet every game at -11 and +14 you should. That's one of the silliest posts I've ever seen that if your number was 13 there was not enough value. If your number was 18, and you bet -11, you then bet +14 because you do this long enough and you will learn that the NFL market is far better than you are.

[QUOTE=sean1;49269]If you can bet every game at -11 and +14 you should. That's one of the silliest posts I've ever seen that if your number was 13 there was not enough value. If your number was 18, and you bet -11, you then bet +14 because you do this long enough and you will learn that the NFL market is far better than you are.[/QUOTE] That wasnt the premise of the comments though.... fez didn't bet -11.... he merely said betting atl when line was -13.5 was "donkey".... obviously he didn't have a play on atl so he didn't bet -11. the point i was making is.... betting -13.5 was not donkey if you had -18 as your #... and clearly -18 could have been a realistic and correct # on that one sided total blowout.