[QUOTE=Fezzik;34631]OF COURSE, AFTER the buttkicking an SEC undefeated team just gave to a good sec team, and Oregamy fading down the stretch, the entire betting world is going to pound the best team, best conference team.
A freight train of cash on Auburn here.....
I understand this phenom in NFL, after the afc champ game, they put up matchups that always are too high on the AFC.....guess what? the NFC team that gets there is going to likely look impressive, and their power rating is going up.
Oregon at less than 3.5 is HORRENDOUS. As I've mentioned to Mr. Netto he is spending WAY too much time on the radio, and he needs to spend WAY more time actually learning how to win at this......he is a very sharp apprentice, not a savvy proven winner at this......[/QUOTE]
Having just returned from a bountiful yet freezing trip to Manhattan, I'm warmed to see I am a topic of conversation. No doubt I have weaknesses and many of them. In fact all of Fezzik's criticisms are true and I strive to improve on them all. I post on these forums with no other intent but to share my perspective and insight with others. These posts are done in a collaborative manner where hopefully all of us can learn something, even if one doesn't agree.
Given the information we have [B]now[/B], clearly any play on Oregon +3 -110 is not a good play with the 3.5's that are sitting out there and the preponderance of Auburn money coming in. I admitted as much a few days ago in a post that I underestimated the public sentiment behind Auburn. If you can't admit and learn from your mistakes, you are doomed to repeat them at this or any other endeavor in life.
In this case, having seen the number at Oregon -4.5 a week earlier, I was much more concerned about this game going to pick'em than going the other direction. Again, that was a mistake...
The irony in all of this being my passion for oddsmaking is that beating the books for any material amount of money is IMHO materially more difficult than beating the stock market. I can substantiate this if for any reason, as the compression of costs [B](a sports bet takes 2.3% hold at pinny 21/20, 4.6% 11/10 hold at traditional brick and mortar, whereas trading costs can be as low as .01% or 1/230 that of sports betting)[/B] and liquidity available in trading is exponentially greater than in the sports betting world.
In terms of being on the radio. I'm not sure how in the last two months I was only on one time for a seven minute segment where I talked about the Pac 10 and promoted The Big Brothers - Big Sisters of Nevada charity event that night qualifies...Irrespective of that, never let the facts get in the way of a good story...Love you Fez ;-)
In terms of the game itself and your assessment of both South Carolina being a good SEC team and Oregon fading. I have a different perspective on both counts. The first is that this was a historical year in the SEC East on a number of fronts in terms of the suspension to AJ Green at Georgia, Florida rebuilding, and Tennessee going through a transition with Lane Kiffin leaving in the off season. Without going into exhaustive detail, the stars were very much aligned for a South Carolina win.
In terms of Oregon fading down the stretch. I think it's more a case of hats off to California. Oregon finished with an impressive win at USC, where all of the "smart money" had the Trojans that night, a 37 point blowout at home to a Washington team sans Jake Locker, narrow road win to Cal where they narrowly escaped, a 19 point win against Arizona where they showed their depth in the second half and pulled away impressively, and then a very workmanlike effort against Oregon St on the road where they faced some adversity and showed once again they have the depth, composure, and coaching to pull away and cover the number.
This is not fading down the stretch and like you said... I am very focused and very rarely does a detail escape my attention for any Pac 10 team. There is no doubt that teams have made adjustments to Oregon's style and for that you are correct. But this team creates scores on three fronts: offensive explosiveness, special teams, and turnover margin. They are at the top of the nation in all of those categories and now they are getting more than a FG...The play speaks for itself here...Let the public money pour in on Auburn and find some donkey book who will give you a +4.5 and pound them...
