[QUOTE=npc;38729] Here's the breakdown for the last 10 years, including playoff games. There are few good ways to format tabular data with this forum software, so my apologies for that.
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line range: ot - non-ot: ot%
all 183 - 2827 0.0607973
pk to 2.5 30 - 406 0.0688073
3 45 - 601 0.0696594
3.5 to 6 45 - 730 0.0580645
6.5 to 8 32 - 442 0.0675105
8.5 to 12 22 - 369 0.056266
12.5 and up 9 - 279 0.03125
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A small nit, but this is impossible to be the correct NFL data for 10 years. There are 267 NFL games per year (256 regular season plus 11 playoff games, not including pre-season games). Before the last expansion in 2002, there were 259 games. Thus for the 10 years 2000-2009 (inclusive), there were 2654 NFL games including playoffs. Also the column labelled "ot%" is not a percentage, it should be "ot probability"
One possible source for part of this discrepancy is that you've included pick'em games twice, this is a common error with database queries. One way to get the correct answer is to special case pick'em games or another is use the absolute value of the line, count every game result (twice, once for each team) and divide by 2. However, using Gold Sheet data, I only show 27 pick'em games in the last 10 years (of course depends on the (closing) line used).
Also, I show a slightly lower percentage of overall overtime games (5.8%) and higher percentage (7.4%) for games lined between 1 and 3.5 (brackets the Pitt/GB superbowl line).
