Pac 10 Total - #365 - Under 53.5 California - Arizona St. - 2 units I don't play a ton of Pac 10 totals but this one offers a number of angles which scream of value. There are three aspects to winning any college football game: offense, defense, and special teams. On the offensive side, both Cal QB Kevin Riley, and ASU QB Threet have been less than impressive during the 2010 campaign. While I'm willing to forgive Threet in his first full season, 5th year Senior QB Riley is without excuse. Rily was ineffective against Arizona, passed for only 90 yards in Cal's dominant performance against UCLA, and succumbed to a revitalized USC defense in Cal's last outing.
Both defensive coaching staff's are good enough to scheme against each other to keep the other in check. Cal's defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast will be able to throw enough confusing blitz packages at the young QB, and Arizona St isn't impressive statistically on defense, has faced some prolific offenses in Oregon, Oregon St. and Wisconsin on the road. I was impressed with how athletic Arizona St is on defense and can say the key match up of this game will be between two future NFL 1rst round picks Cal Running back Shane Vereen vs. ASU LB Vontaze Burfict. Burfict was benched for the first quarter against Washington but his sheer athleticism helped ASU keep QB Jake Locker and the Huskies offensive in check and under constant pressure. I expect more of the same in this matchup against a less threatening Kevin Riley...
Kudos to Alf Musketta, who during a recent meeting reminded the group about the prowess of both punters in this affair. Cal Punter Bryan Anger and ASU punter Trevor Hankins who rank 7th and 1rst respectively in the nation in net punting. This adds potentially 6-8 yards to each possession, or about 130 yards of beneficial field position to the defense during an average 18 possession game. This has a profound impact in a game in terms of total plays and points per yards. I don't think the odds maker has truly calculated all of the aforementioned variables in making the total in this game...
With ASU off of a bye following their win over Washington, I expect a few more wrinkles defensively in preparing for the Cal attack, while I'm willing to forgive what is a very sure-tackling Cal defense for their horrible performance last week at USC where the offense just hung them out to dry.
Bottom line -
The confluence of variables in this match-up offers tremendous value on under 53.5 points in this Pac 10 affair...
