PASSING on Sides for CONF CHampionship games

PASSING on Sides for CONF CHampionship games The stats scream "BALT!". However, the Balt D has played a ridiculous amount of plays the last two games, the last one in zero degree wind chilll. Surely, this has to have an impact on the team, and the cover vs. Denver was impressive, however, the outright win was gift wrapped by Denver. All year long Balt has been a phony team, hard to suddenly expect them to rise up and win in NE. The value bettors are screaming ATL! After all, this team is the NO1 seed, they are great at home, and this line WAS 2 at halftime of the sea Game. However, the stats say "ATL SUCKS, SF is going to win the SB". Look no further than the Fundamental RUSHING ADV of SF +1.5 YPPlay (O vs Def gives up) vs. ATL MINUS 1.0. That means EVERY TIME the ball gets run, SF has a MASSIVE ADVANTAGE. MASSIVE. So, PASS. Will be looking at props heavily..........

Would love to get your thoughts on the props I posted earlier today. I'm also watching 5 others for the price to get right and I can compare notes via back channel if you'd like.

not really the right thread but only one I know Fezzik might look in I am looking at some mythical SB lines on offer, two stand out to me, Baltimore PK -105 vs Falcons & Pats -6 vs Falcons, unless the Falcons smash the 49ers off the park this week I don't see how either of these wouldn't move in my favour if I was to play them now, and even if they Falcons were to smash them, the AFC game is the one that will be in the publics minds first when the SB lines come out so I don't see how I would be on the wrong side of the line. anyone have an opinion on this?

How do these work if the team loses this week? Is that considered a loss or a push on these tickets? I'm assuming a loss.

It's no action. If it were a loss then any bet like that would be an absolutely awful one. It's just a speculative look ahead line that you can bet on now and lock in your price in case it shakes out that way.

In that case I can see the lure. Locking in pk for the sb seems like a good idea and pats -6 is bound to move. I don't usually like sides, I only like props and totals. But I can see how these are good numbers. I like both of them.

could almost throw in the Baltimore line vs the 49ers too, the Ray Lewis factor will be played up massively too which I forgot to mention initially. the other risk is if the AFC winner gets an a big injury during the game

Injury risks run both ways. Kaepernick hype is sort of ridiculous right now. He's not suddenly Sliced Bread 2.0. No matter how he performs vs. Atlanta, he can't run for 180 yards. I would take the AFC team over the NFC team in all lines you've mentioned, if for no other reason you will probably be able to buy back later.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;56300]Injury risks run both ways. Kaepernick hype is sort of ridiculous right now. He's not suddenly Sliced Bread 2.0. No matter how he performs vs. Atlanta, he can't run for 180 yards. I would take the AFC team over the NFC team in all lines you've mentioned, if for no other reason you will probably be able to buy back later.[/QUOTE] I agree with that last statement. Heck, buy both of them, I think the odds of middling either one are pretty high or you can probably buy both back at some point. I'm guessing theres little downside to these, you'll end up break even at worst.

BALT pk or + vs. Atl is one fine bet. NE -6.5 or less is decent vs. Atl