Pinnacle Value Capping

Pinnacle Value Capping When i first started out at this and knew nothing, i would chase blindly on things listed as -115 on the basis that since it costs more, its better. when i started learning a thing or two, it became a mute point becuase i stopped chasing. we all know to always try and get a better number than pinny. since i had some additional time on my hands, i started looking at 2h at cbb and comparing pinny numbers to a few other books. if pinny was showing -128, id still see -110 or even a better number (by .5 point) at other books, thus creating value. i started charting this out in the last week and noticed that the -128, -125, -118s for both totals and sides were losing more than they were winning by about 3 to 1. its obviously a small sample and it may take very little money to start moving a 2h cbb. does anyone know how much money it actually takes to move the vig? i started thinking that pinny may actually just make up the vig amounts for no reason at all to get a bettor to wager on something they wouldnt have otherwise. does anyone think theres any truth to this or too small of a sample? i feel if you can do 18cents better than pinny you should certainly have some value, but it hasnt been working out that way.

[QUOTE=roll your own;14717] does anyone know how much money it actually takes to move the vig? i started thinking that pinny may actually just make up the vig amounts for no reason at all to get a bettor to wager on something they wouldnt have otherwise. does anyone think theres any truth to this or too small of a sample? i feel if you can do 18cents better than pinny you should certainly have some value, but it hasnt been working out that way.[/QUOTE] I doubt Pinnacle needs to resort to these moves to get action. They get plenty of volume, and it would be totally out of character for them to go donking around with their lines. Recipe for disaster if you ask me to move lines without reason. Sharps would be more than happy to get an extra 5 cents here and there. Small samples are worthless virtually without exception. Any conclusions made from small samples that get you to start betting will probably lose you the vig and then some. Second problem is that a bet, an angle, a model that goes 300-200 the last 500 plays is not guaranteed to go 300-200 the next 500 plays. Everything in the sports betting world is in perpetual motion. Like they say in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future success. My advice is accept your current limitations, play tight, and your bankroll's growth or shrinkage will be the ultimate determination of where you are. I would say make an estimate of where you are as an advantage player, divide it by 10, and you'll probably be pretty close to your actual ability. I say all this humbly, because it applies to me.

Thanks for the reply. But do you agree with what I have been doing or is it just about the dumbest thing youve heard? I dont mind good bets losing, but im looking for confirmation that if im beating a line by 18cents that in the long run i should win. Looking for help from those that do this full time. Im at the stage where Im trying to see if I grow the bankroll year round.

[QUOTE=Climate;14721]I doubt Pinnacle needs to resort to these moves to get action. They get plenty of volume, and it would be totally out of character for them to go donking around with their lines. Recipe for disaster if you ask me to move lines without reason. Sharps would be more than happy to get an extra 5 cents here and there. Small samples are worthless virtually without exception. Any conclusions made from small samples that get you to start betting will probably lose you the vig and then some. Second problem is that a bet, an angle, a model that goes 300-200 the last 500 plays is not guaranteed to go 300-200 the next 500 plays. Everything in the sports betting world is in perpetual motion. Like they say in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future success. My advice is accept your current limitations, play tight, and your bankroll's growth or shrinkage will be the ultimate determination of where you are. I would say make an estimate of where you are as an advantage player, divide it by 10, and you'll probably be pretty close to your actual ability. I say all this humbly, because it applies to me.[/QUOTE] Pinny's line is solid IMO. I agree 100% with what Climate says, and I think everyone should carefully follow his points.

In ref to CBB 2nd half lines, any max bet and their computer will move the line x cents. This is a small market, and they take only $250 on S.H. CBB totals, so if 1 person bets 250 on a total then it moves. To answer your question blindly following like you have been doing is not going to work. Pinny is a good reference point when looking at big market stuff, but not what it was 3-4 years ago.

Pinny moving 'x cents' on a max bet is a beautiful thing. Over and over and over again. God, I love Pinny.

1h/2h pinny ncaab market are a complete JOKE. 250 bet on ncaab total moves their market to the moon and beyond. same goes with their 500 ncaab halftime sides. low limits=less efficient market= fairly insignificant market.

so id be correct in stating that a wise guy that knows a thing or 2 would not even waste his time with this book in this market?

a lot of posts about pinnacle lines. is there a way to wager on pinnacle lines if you are a resident of the U. S. OF A. had an account with them a few years back until they pulled the plug on u. s. residents.

okay, had to give it one last shot. hopefully the nba has a bigger market. gsw +1 shot up to -128. usually other books dont blink, but greek went to +.5 -115 after also being at +1 -110.