Pitt onside kick....3:30+ left up by 2?

I didn't like the call, but I don't think it's as bad as it first looks. It's pretty close imo. One thing that's overlooked (or perhaps not generally known) is the success rate of such an unexpected onside kick. I can't say I know what it is, but I suspect it's pretty high. And you'll note that it was poor execution that prevented them from recovering (properly). Probably the main reason I didn't like the call is that I suspect Tomlin would have just run, run, run, punt anyway had they gotten it. In order to make it close to correct, you have to continue to run a reasonably aggressive offense, often going for it on 4th down and even trying to score. I highly doubt he had that in mind.

[QUOTE=Rumpelstiltskin;12832]I didn't like the call, but I don't think it's as bad as it first looks. It's pretty close imo. One thing that's overlooked (or perhaps not generally known) is the success rate of such an unexpected onside kick. I can't say I know what it is, but I suspect it's pretty high. And you'll note that it was poor execution that prevented them from recovering (properly). Probably the main reason I didn't like the call is that I suspect Tomlin would have just run, run, run, punt anyway had they gotten it. In order to make it close to correct, you have to continue to run a reasonably aggressive offense, often going for it on 4th down and even trying to score. I highly doubt he had that in mind.[/QUOTE] Agree with you that in order to make the move payoff, you have to stay aggressive. But I slightly question why you think Tomlin would have just run, run, run. This Pittsburgh Offensive coordinator is being run out of town because he supposedly passes the ball too much. So I am not convinced they would have gone conservative.

Count me in the "it's a close one" camp. Mathematically it boils down to your chances of recovering the kick. If you're operating under the assumption that nobody's going to stop anybody, it doesn't seem like a bad play. To make it workable, Pitt would need to avoid the scenario where GB recovers the kick and kicks GWFG while still burning off all the clock, by being willing to concede a TD if necessary to save time.

Mathematically the right call, and by a significant margin, according to advancednflstats.com. Surprisingly, unexpected on-side kicks have an average success rate of 60%. [url]https://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/should-steelers-have-kicked-onside.html[/url]