Pittsburgh -2.5 A game that just missed one of my best bets
[B]Pittsburgh -2.5 TAMPA BAY 33[/B]
Pittsburgh got a big win at Tennessee last week and got off to a great start with a kick off return to begin the game. They turned seven Tennessee turnovers into short drives that led to 16 of their 19 points being scored on drives of 34 yards or less, including the kick off return. They out rushed Tennessee 3.2ypr to 2.1ypr but only managed 1.0yps, while giving up 4.9yps to Tennessee. Overall, they were out gained 3.9yppl to 2.4yppl. TB got a big win on the road at lowly Carolina. While they were out rushed 3.6ypr to 2.8ypr, they did manage to out pass Carolina 7.1yps to 4.8yps and out gained Carolina overall, 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. They also benefited from a +3 in turnover margin.
Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 698-569-44. They don’t qualify in the best subsets of that situation. Pittsburgh has played two pretty good teams in Atlanta and Tennessee while TB has played just Cleveland and Carolina. Knowing who TB played, they are still below average on defense. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh appears to be back to a top level defense with the return of most of their starters. Dick LeBleau type defenses tend to dominate inferior teams and I expect that here today. I don’t expect much of a letdown with Charlie Batch at quarterback.
Any play on TB under team points is a good play as well. Good luck.[B]PITTSBURGH 20 TAMPA BAY 10[/B]
