Pool Pick advice needed

Pool Pick advice needed What is the safest pool pick (straight up)to make here. it is a 25K pool and I'd like to win it. Here are the good teams I have yet to use. Patriots Denver Saints Eagles Jets Arizona Jaguars Titans So far, Most people left took Denver. I'd rather not use Denver for that reason. Any suggestions?

In order of preference via biggest point-win margin, I have the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets #1 (going out on a limb here--as the 2 QBs are ?--but...how long can the ATL hang with 'em if NY scores a few early; after the crushing loss vs NOs?); AZ #2 (off an embarrassing performance vs SF); and, Philly beating a "fat and happy" Niner squad off of a big win at home. Thursday games don't count in my pool, but I have all the other teams you listed above. I have finished in the top 10 twice so far this year with my picks, but an upset here and there has prevented me from an outright 1st place finish. I'm embarrassed to say that ladies named Betty and Beatrice (bingo players??) have claimed 3 #1 finishes thus far. (Insert WTF icon here.) GL this week.

Gotta take the Broncos here and live to fight another week imo.

Cowboys: "So far, Most people left took Denver. I'd rather not use Denver for that reason. I talked to a couple guys at SMC tonight and they've got the big tickets for the Rose Bowl, Rumpelstiltskin. One of them was up 11k in slots but has since given most of it back. I told him to put it (whatever he has to lose) on Oregon -3 with the extra vig. Ducks roll. I hope you agree. You're the man.

[QUOTE=cowboys;12413]What is the safest pool pick (straight up)to make here. it is a 25K pool and I'd like to win it. Here are the good teams I have yet to use. Patriots Denver Saints Eagles Jets Arizona Jaguars Titans So far, Most people left took Denver. I'd rather not use Denver for that reason. Any suggestions?[/QUOTE] You have taken some chances to get this far and still have these teams left. I used Pats this last week while 25 of 28 left in mine used Titans. That is what you want obv...to be by yourself. I would use the Eagles in your spot. Save Arizona for next week against the Rams. I'm using Zona this week, but I have Cincy left at home against the Chiefs next week. It is more important to be by yourself in most cases if you run expected values based upon money lines...even if you're only a slight fav. Also, Denver has a great spot in week 17 at home against the Chiefs so long as they need to win the game. With most people using Denver this week, that leaves you more by yourself for week 17.

[QUOTE=kgbted21;12427]You have taken some chances to get this far and still have these teams left. I used Pats this last week while 25 of 28 left in mine used Titans. That is what you want obv...to be by yourself. I would use the Eagles in your spot. Save Arizona for next week against the Rams. I'm using Zona this week, but I have Cincy left at home against the Chiefs next week. It is more important to be by yourself in most cases if you run expected values based upon money lines...even if you're only a slight fav. Also, Denver has a great spot in week 17 at home against the Chiefs so long as they need to win the game. With most people using Denver this week, that leaves you more by yourself for week 17.[/QUOTE] I'm an idiot. I thought I new what "pool" meant. (A non-point spread event.) Sorry for my uneducated advice.

I am fortunate to still be in mine as well (although this year it seems that there have not been a lot of upsets relative to seasons prior). I have the following teams with winning records left: GB SD Den Phi AZ NO Ind I cannot be convinced to take any team but Philly. Having watched this 49er team up close all year, I don't see how they win this game. (10 a.m. start, right?)

[QUOTE=kgbted21;12427]You have taken some chances to get this far and still have these teams left. I used Pats this last week while 25 of 28 left in mine used Titans. That is what you want obv...to be by yourself. I would use the Eagles in your spot. Save Arizona for next week against the Rams. I'm using Zona this week, but I have Cincy left at home against the Chiefs next week. It is more important to be by yourself in most cases if you run expected values based upon money lines...even if you're only a slight fav. .[/QUOTE] yes, I took the Lions over the Browns. Have no idea how I won that. Next week is no problem as there are lots of quality choices. I will probably take Saints at home against Bucs (I think that is a home game for them) I'm thinking Eagles or Arizona, but 49ers scare me as they play good teams close. The Cardinals seem to take a Hiatus this time of year. So that scares me a bit. Can't back the Patriots on the road against a team they should have lost to and one with dangerous pass defense. Can't take the Saints because the Cowboys are capable of running the football and keeping Brees over on the sideline. Starting to look like Denver even though I'd like to stay away from them.

Repeat. You don't want to be on the same team as everyone else. You don't pick up any expected value from that. If 75% of the league takes Denver, and 15% take Zona and 10% take Philly or worse, who has the best of it. One way to figure this is the calculate the value of each remaining entry and multiply by the number of expected entries on each team and then multiply by the ML for the selected team. You can then determine the expected value you are getting from each team. If you run the numbers, you will see why you want to be by yourself or in small group. No one knows who will win what games so don't sweat that...just make the best mathematical play you can.

[QUOTE=Lake Tahoe kid;12429]I'm an idiot. I thought I new what "pool" meant. (A non-point spread event.) Sorry for my uneducated advice.[/QUOTE] Typically, people would call these "Survivor Pools" so it wasn't entirely clear.