Preaseason Week 1, 273 Hou/KC OVER 35, 1 weight, Charlie Play

As Fezz said, we played Hou/KC over 35. It is rare to find a preseason matchup where all six qb's have NFL starting experience.Houston will start Schaub with Orlavsky and Grossman battling for the back-up spot.Grossman has impressed the coaches with his accuracy on long passes.KC will start Casell with Croyle and Thigpen in a battle for the #2 postion.The Chiefs hired Todd Haley as HC after he served as OC for the high scoring Cards. I expect him to get rid of the stodgy offense installed by his predecessor, Herm Edwards.They signed two veteran wr's, Engram and Toomer during the offseason.They should be able to work well against a depleted Texans' secondary.Their all-pro db,Dunta Robinson, is a hold-out.Their other corners,Jacques Reeves and Antuwan Molden, are injured and won't suit up fot Saturday's contest.This leaves the Texans with two rookies starting at corner (Quinn and Mccain-4th and 6th round picks).They were both listed as third string when camp began.They will most likely not play the entire game. That means that corners listed as 4th string or worse should see some playing time. Houston HC,Gary Kubiak, will cooperate in an uptempo game. In the last two years,the Texans are 7-1 "over" in preseason games.The only game that did not eclipse the total was the "throw away" game versus Tampa in game four of last preseason. With two offensive-minded coaches,six experienced qbs and two subpar defenses,I believe that this matchup deserved a one unit play on the over. Good luck, charliej
I thinkit deserved a 5 weight at OV 35.......... But the market liquidity wouldn't handle it. I hit a bunch of OV 35.......NOT ENOUGH!!!!!! Ps. When this goes above 37, I will start leaning to the under.....my 'basic strategy' betting has always been to look to play some (often a very small) portion of my bet back when getting a 3 point line move. Having said that, I won't take back that much, AND no hurry to do so....total may hit 38.5.
Oh! 35 is not "dead", just not as common as some others. I've seen lots of strange scores in the last 50 years. EVERY 1/2 point is valuable IMO. FWIW, I agree 100% with Fezzik about taking back some when the line moves 3 points (yes, this DOES mean I should rate my early plays more than one unit, something I will consider).
[QUOTE=Fezzik;523]But the market liquidity wouldn't handle it. I hit a bunch of OV 35.......NOT ENOUGH!!!!!! Ps. When this goes above 37, I will start leaning to the under.....my 'basic strategy' betting has always been to look to play some (often a very small) portion of my bet back when getting a 3 point line move. Having said that, I won't take back that much, AND no hurry to do so....total may hit 38.5.[/QUOTE] As this is such a small market, it doesn't take much to get it moving. That being said, I don't think under 38.5 -110 is quite good enough here.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;523]But the market liquidity wouldn't handle it. I hit a bunch of OV 35.......NOT ENOUGH!!!!!! Ps. When this goes above 37, I will start leaning to the under.....my 'basic strategy' betting has always been to look to play some (often a very small) portion of my bet back when getting a 3 point line move. Having said that, I won't take back that much, AND no hurry to do so....total may hit 38.5.[/QUOTE] You might want to think about including this in your original post...might help out the smaller players that follow you. :)
Another +EV posted play, win or lose, as line now at 37 1/2 -110 (Chris) and 37 +105 (Pinny). Charlie and Fezzik are catching the apex and/or creating steam. Either way, this info has GOT to be +EV!
Please help me out with this. If I got the over at 35 for $110 at -110, how much should I bet on the Under when it reaches 37.5 and up at each 1/2 point?
Dave if $100 is your normal wager dont play anything back. Sit back and enjoy the +EV bet you have pending.
[QUOTE=towelie;560]Dave if $100 is your normal wager dont play anything back. Sit back and enjoy the +EV bet you have pending.[/QUOTE] This is exactly what I do with most every play that steams like this. Then I watch it lose. :)
[QUOTE=towelie;560]Dave if $100 is your normal wager dont play anything back. Sit back and enjoy the +EV bet you have pending.[/QUOTE] What does it matter if it's $100, $10, or $10,000? I'm looking for the right play, not the monetary result.