Prof. Meyer's 2010 NFL: Futures Part 1

Prof. Meyer's 2010 NFL: Futures Part 1 [B]5-Star Cincinnati UNDER 8' wins [/B]– The Bengals played way over their heads last season. They swept the Ravens, winning 17-14 in Baltimore getting 8 and then completing the sweep by winning 17-7 getting 3 at home. They also swept the Steelers, winning 23-20 getting 3’ at home and then completing the sweep by upsetting Pittsburgh 18-12 getting 6’ on the road. The Bengals also swept the Browns, beating Cleveland 23-30 in overtime laying 5’ in Cleveland and then winning 16-7 laying 12’ at home. The payback will come this season. Every single divisional opponent will have their games against the Bengals circled. And, after they win the first one, they will not be satisfied. The Bengals’ only win over the last five games of the 2009 season came as a 13-point home favorite over the Chiefs. Cincinnati needed a TD with 2:03 remaining in the game to get the 17-10 victory. The Bengals are a below average team that got lucky last season. Cedric Benson, who had a career year for the Bengals last season, was arrested for assault with injury in late June. Their other star, Chad Ochocinco, seems to be focused on other projects. Finally, Carson Palmer appears vastly over-rated to us, as the Bengals averaged 176 passing yards per game last season, which was ahead of only the Panthers, Rams, Raiders, Bills, Jets and Browns -- all of which started terrible or rookie QB’s last season. Because the Bengals won their division in 2009, their wild card opponents this season are the Patriots and the Chargers – winners of the AFC East and West respectively. Ouch. The Bengals – like the Browns of 2007, had a miracle season and finished 10-6. Our 5-Star futures play of the year for 2008 was Cleveland Browns UNDER 8 wins. The Browns finished 4-12 in 2008. The same thing should happen to the Bengals here. In 2008, the Bengals were 4-11-1 during the regular season but they jumped to 10-6 last season. Why? There is no assignable cause. They did not sign a raft of good free agents. There was no coaching change. They did not have a great draft. They just got lucky. Now this below-average team is expected to finish above 500 on the season with a tougher schedule. No way. In our 2008 Futures Play of the Year on Cleveland Under eight wins we wrote, “The main reason why they will crash and burn this season is that they THINK they're good. Romeo Crennel thinks he's a coaching genius. Derek Anderson thinks he's a good quarterback. They will do they same things they did last season to win and these same things will not work this season.” The same is true this season. Marvin Lewis thinks he actually made clever decisions that got the Bengals to 10-6. He is wrong. Cincinnati will be lucky to win seven games this season and it is likely they will be worse than that. MTi’s FORECAST: CINCINNATI 5-11 [B]4-Star ARIZONA OVER 7.5 Wins[/B] – The Cardinals nearly won the Superbowl in 2008 and lost in the second round of the playoffs to the eventual Super Bowl winner. This season, their OU win total is 7.5. There is assignable cause for the line being so low and that is the loss of QB Kurt Warner, WR Anquan Boldin, FS Antrel Rolle and MLB Karlos Dansby. These definitely were key contributors, however, the only one that we’re concerned about is the loss of Karlos Dansby. Derek Anderson will step in at QB and Steve Breaston will step in at wide receiver for Boldin. Strong Safety Kerry Rhodes was a great pick-up from the Jets to shore up the secondary. Whisenhunt is a solid coach who insists that the veterans act as mentors for the younger players. This makes it a lot easier to replace a player that is lost to free agency or injury. Arizona has a very easy schedule this season, as the NFC West draws the AFC West. They will probably lose to the Chargers on the road, but they should beat Denver, Kansas City and Oakland. They play in the weakest division in the entire league and we can’t imagine them going worse than 4-2 against their division-mates, Seattle, St Louis and the 49ers. We expect at least a 4-4 record in the Cardinals’ road games this season. From 2003 through 2007, Arizona was a very poor road team, as they won a TOTAL of five road games in the five seasons. Last season, they won SIX road games. The Cardinals are one of three teams that start the season with a two-game road trip, but it is the only two-game road trip they will have all season. They have a three game home stand from weeks 12-14 that include the 49ers on Monday Night, the Rams and then the Broncos. The loss of high-profile players is always over-emphasized by the average handicapper. Breatson, for example, would have been a starter on many NFL teams if he weren’t playing behind Boldin and Fitzgerald. He’ll step into the starter’s role easily and Early Doucet should fill his shoes at the third receiver spot. We also expect a breakout season for Beanie Wells. Indeed, the Cardinals signed Alan Faneca specifically as a run-blocker for Wells. Faneca jumped at the chance to play for Whisenhunt, his former coach at Pittsburgh. We expect that Whisenhunt is looking at this year with a lot of hope. He loves not being the favorite to win the division and he loves the challenge of replacing “big-name” players – after all, that’s what coaching is all about. Take the Cardinals OVER and also consider a play on them to win the division as well. MTi’s FORECAST: ARIZONA 10-6 Prof M.

Part II [B]4-Star Carolina OVER 7.5 wins[/B] – Many are lamenting the Panthers’ frugalness and reluctance to sign their stars to long-term contracts and failing to extend John Fox’s contract in the off-season. However, to us, having stars in the last year of their contract is very motivating. How often have you seen a “star” have an off year immediately after being signed to a long-term contract? If their stars want to cash in big next year, they can’t have an off-season this year. And, if John Fox wants to get a big contract, he can assure it by taking the Panthers to the playoffs this season. Carolina won eight games last season after losing their first three to the Eagles, Cowboys and Falcons, respectively. This season, they start with the Giants on the road and they have home games with the Bucs and Bengals in weeks two and three. In fact, four of their first six games are at home. In addition, the Panthers have four winnable ROAD games this season – in St Louis, Tampa, Cleveland and Seattle. In 2009, the Panthers were 0-4 vs the AFC and 8-4 vs the NFC – as they drew the tough AFC East last season. This season, they get the weaker AFC North. A negative often mentioned is the Panthers’ front four on defense. However, looking at the numbers from late 2009, we see that their defense really came together late. Before week 12, the Panthers allowed an average of 23.9 ppg. From week 12 on, the Panthers allowed only 11.5 ppg. This was best in the entire league, and this includes a INT returned for a TD against them. You may suspect that the Panthers had weak opponents over their last six games of the season, but they faced the Patriots, Jets, Vikings, Saints and Giants, with their one “easy” opponent the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We also expect the further development of QB Matt Moore this season. We have read that the drafting of Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame shows lack of confidence in Moore. However, this is not a negative; competition at QB is very motivational. Also, we have two terrific running backs who will not haggle over carries. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have become great friends who both are counting W’s rather than carries. They should take the pressure off Moore AND they should take the pressure off their defense by controlling the clock. Indeed, a great running game can hide weaknesses in other areas Carolina’s corners and secondary are solid and they have All-Everything Jon Beason at Middle Linebacker. This team is definitely under the radar, despite the fact that they are 13-3 at home the past two regular seasons. They should go at least 3-3 within their division, 2-2 vs the AFC North, at least 2-2 vs the NFC West and at least 1-1 vs their wild card opponents Chicago and the NY Giants. Take them OVER and we got +1200 for them to win the NFC South. They may or may not win their division, but that price is WAY off. MTi’s FORECAST: CAROLINA 9-7 [B]4-Star Oakland UNDER 6.5 wins[/B] – The Raiders have set a record for most consecutive seasons with eleven-plus losses. From 2003 through 2009, the Raiders have had seven straight season in which they did not win more than five games. What makes this interesting is that they went to the Super Bowl the Year before this streak started. We don’t see any reason why they won’t extend this record one more season. Oakland did make less risky draft picks this season and replaced QB Jamarcus Russell with Jason Campbell. However, they still have a weak offensive line and they have no solid running backs. On the plus side, their pass defense is ranked high. However, poor teams often have good pass defense numbers simply because their opponents are running the ball with a substantial lead. As evidence, the Raiders opponents attempted an average of 27.31 passes per game last season. No other NFL team had a number lower than 30. The reason why teams have not been passing against the Raiders is not that their pass defense is excellent. It is because they are running the clock with a big lead. Of course, Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson are decent cornerbacks, but these two have been Oakland’s starting corners for each of the past three seasons. So, arguing that the Raiders will be a better team this season because of their good starting corners is faulty logic. Looking at the numbers more closely reveals that the Raiders were the second worst team in the league in opponent’s yards per completion with 12.75. Only the Dolphins were worse. It appears the Raiders ranking of 9th in the league is passing yards allowed is merely the result of their opponents running the ball with a lead. Last season, the Raiders were 5-11, but all of their five wins were squeakers in which they caught their opponent in a vulnerable position or were very fortunate – or both. Their first win was a 13-10 victory as a 2-point dog in Kansas City. Oakland had 11 first downs and the Chiefs had 25. Oakland completed only seven passes the entire game. The Chiefs had 409 yards of total offense and the Raiders had 168. Kansas City dominated the clock with 38:39 of possession time. The Raiders’ next win came in week six vs Philadelphia. The Eagles were 3-1 on the season and they were a 14-point ROAD favorite. However, they were in a big look-ahead situation, as their next three opponents were the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys. The Eagles were as flat as a crepe and lost 13-9. The lone TD of the game was on an 86-yard pass play from Jamarcus Russell to Zack Miller. Oakland’s third win of the season came in week 11 vs the Bengals. Oakland was a nine-point home dog to Cincinnati. The Bengals took an early 14-0 lead and led 17-10 late in the game. A compliant Bengals’ defense allowed the Raiders to score ten points in the last 1:40 of the game and Oakland won 20-17. Their fourth win of 2009 game in week 13 when they were getting 14’ points in Pittsburgh. The Steelers held the Raiders to two long field goals through the first three quarters. However, in the fourth, they started to look ahead to their nationally televised, divisional game in Cleveland on the upcoming Thursday. They allowed three Raiders’ TDs in the fourth quarter to get upset 27-24. In week 15, the Raiders were a 13-point road dog to the Broncos. Denver led 19-13 late in the game, but their “prevent” defense allowed Oakland to get in the end zone with 39-seconds left for the 20-19 win and their fifth and last win of 2009.

With the Broncos, Chiefs and Steelers seeking revenge for home losses last season, you can be sure that the Raiders will get their full attention this season. These fluke wins in 2009 hide how bad the Raiders were. There were getting nine or more points in TEN games last season. They scored an average of 12.3 points per game in 2009 and scored a total of one touchdown in the third quarter all season. Yes, they had a decent draft, but these players will need time to develop. It’s been 15 seasons since a team had two wins as a 13+ point underdog in the same season and the Raiders did it THREE times last year. This season, teams will be aware of this potential and will play the entire 60 minutes. Al Davis has destroyed this team with his terrible draft choices and terrible free-agent signings. They will not recover next season. Take them UNDER. MTi’s FORECAST: Oakland 5-11 in 2010

Agree with Cincinnati. Not so sure about Arizona, but I don't disagree, either. Would like to point out that Hightower is the starter this season, but I still think Beanie gets 40% of the carries.

Basic Futures Strategy Going fwd, Don't fade line moves early!! Get the opening numbers......AND BE PATIENT if you disagree with the line moves!!! They are 1 way freight trains......ususually