Prof Meyer's Monday Night Totals Play (11/1) All trends and systems quoted here can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language.
[B]Houston at Indianapolis UNDER 51.5[/B] – The Indianapolis defense was thoroughly embarrassed by their performance in the opening week this season. They allowed undrafted and unknown Arian Forster to rush for a team-record 231 yards and they lost 34-24 as a three-point road favorite in Houston. The Texans opened up an early 13-0 lead with the help of a 39-yard punt return and a 53-yard pass interference penalty. Playing from behind, the Colts threw the ball almost exclusively. Peyton Manning was 40-of-57 for 433 yards and three TDs with no INTs.
Despite all this passing, the score was “only†27-10 Houston with five minutes to go in the game. Three TDs were scored in garbage time to put the final at 34-24 and over the total. This makes 10 overs in the last 11 meetings between this two. Some may use this fact as a reason to play the over here. However, the fact that the OU record of the last eleven games between these two is 10-1 can’t offer any line value because the linesmakers know this. This is already factored into the line.
In their last game before their bye, the Texans came from behind to beat the Chiefs 35-31. Recently, NFL teams are 0-11 off their bye when they scored at least 30 points in their last game. Also, the league is 0-12 OU when they are off a win as a favorite in which they trailed by more than four points at the end of the first quarter – including 0-4 OU this season – tacking on another winner with the Steelers –Saints UNDER last night (Pittsburgh was down 6-0 vs Miami before winning 23-22 in their previous game).
In the past, the Colts have dominated the Texans. The Indianapolis’ defense could rely on the offense to get the job done. Here, the Texans and Colts are tied for the division lead with a record of 4-2. If the Texans win here, they will be a game up and will win any tie-breaker. Unlike past games between these two, this one should have a playoff-like atmosphere. Evidence for the UNDER is the fact that the Colts are 1-8 OU vs any divisional opponent with the same record.
The Colts have allowed 4.82 yards per game on the ground this season – 4th worst in the league. Kubiak will feature his running game and his defense. Research reveals that Houston is 0-8 OU vs any team with more than one win that has allowed over 4.45 yards per carry season-to-date.
Finally, we have a league-wide system that is active for the Texans. It reads, “The League is 1-24 OU as a dog with more than four days rest vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent, when it is their second match-up of the season and they did not lose the first by more than a TD.†Check it out for yourself with this SDQL text.
[B]D and DIV and n:NDIV and rest>4 and P:season-season=0 and P:margin>=-7 and 20081201
