Prof Meyer's NFL Plays

Prof Meyer's NFL Plays Week Three Totals Play: Detroit at Minnesota UNDER 43 – The Vikings’ best team is on the field when Brett Favre is on the sidelines. The Vikings’ defense has been excellent this season, but the offense has had trouble putting points on the board, scoring 9 and 10 respectively. Minnesota’s only touchdown “drive” of the season came right before the half vs the Saints. The only TD the Vikings scored last week started from the Dolphins one yard line are a fumble recovery – and it took them two tries to get in. Brett Favre committed four turnovers last week and the blame for the loss can be squarely placed on his shoulders. Childress will make sure he doesn’t lose this one by playing very conservatively on offense and waiting for the Lions to make the first mistake. Minnesota had good offensive numbers last week against the Dolphins. They only punted twice, they had 156 yards rushing and 208 yards passing and they had a time of possession of 35:48. We expect the Viking to feature the run almost exclusively – especially early in the game. Minnesota is 0-19 OU as a 3+ favorite the week after a game in which they rushed for at least 150 yards. The SDQL text for this trend is: team=Vikings and line=150 and NB and 20001130

Week Three Side Play We like what Mike Shanahan is doing with the Redskins and we’ll take them here. Washington lost in overtime to the Texans last week, and the league has been underestimated in this spot. NFL teams are 15-0-2 ATS (11.3 ppg) as a favorite the week after a home overtime loss. The last team in this spot was the Redskins and they whomped the Raiders 34-13 as a 2-point road favorite in week 14 last season. The Rams are off a debilitating game. They had a rare chance at a road win, but lost 16-14 to the Raiders. The Rams’ defense should be burned out here, as the Raiders held the ball for 36:39. Yikes. The Redskins have a chance to open a can of whup-ass on the Rams and they finally have a QB that can put some points on the board. St Louis is 0-12 ATS since November 2006 after a game in which they had fewer than 27 minutes of possession time, failing to cover by an average of 13.9 ppg. In their last nine in this situation, the Rams have been non-competitive, losing every game by AT LEAST 17 points. Check them out with this SDQL text: team=Rams and p:TOP=2006 Brutal. Note that the 3’ points the Rams are getting here is by far the fewest they have gotten in this spot since late 2007. Finally, the Rams are in a fantastic play-against spot. It involves a team that blew a half-time lead as a road dog the previous week. Specifically the league is 0-26 ATS since week 11, 2006, at home when they are off a loss as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent, as long as they are not laying double digits. The Rams qualify here. You can see the entire 26 games that make up this system by running this Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) text: H and line>-10 and p:ALD and p:NDIV and 0