Prof Meyer's NFL Side Play

Prof Meyer's NFL Side Play All trends and systems quoted here can be verified with the Sports data Query Language. [B]Washington +3 over DETROIT[/B] -- The Redskins trailed the Bears 14-10 last week, but came back to win 17-14 as a three-point road dog. We like what Mike Shanahan has done with the Redskins and we’ll back them again here. Washington is 4-3 on the season and every win was a war. They beat Dallas 13-7 in week one, nipped the Eagles 17-12 in week 4, beat the Packers 16-13 in overtime in week five and last week was they won over the Bears. Coming back from a halftime deficit in a game that was rated close to pick, can be very inspiring. The linesmakers seem to over-estimate teams in this spot, as NFL teams are 28-2 ATS on the road when they are off a win over a non-divisional opponent in which the line was within four of pick-em, they passed for at least 100 yards and they were trailing by at least a field goal at the half. See for yourself with this SDQL text. [B]A and p:W and -4100 [/B] Note that the league was 4-0 ATS in this situation in 2009 and is already 2-0 in this spot this season, with the latest win coming last week when the Pats beat the Chargers 23-20 getting 3, off a come-from-behind over the Ravens. The Redskins benefitted from SIX Chicago turnovers last week, but this is no reason to play against them, as Washington is 10-0 ATS as a road dog when they are off a game in which they benefited from at least four turnovers. While it is true that the Redskins struggled a bit on offense in Chicago, they knew they did not have to do much on offense because their defense was playing so well. This is mark of a coach that can manage a game. Besides, Washington is a very nice 8-0 ATS as a regular season dog after getting a first down on fewer than 25% of their offensive plays as an away dog, so this is not reason to doubt their chances here. Some might tout a play against the Redskins because they are playing their second straight road game. However, Detroit has not been able to capitalize on teams in similar situations, as they are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game, falling short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.5 ppg. Some may quote the fact that the Redskins are the “worst” defensive team in the NFC, allowing a whopping 406 yards of offense per game. However, total yards do not tell the whole story. Only 28% of their opponent’s drives have produced points and this is the eighth best in the entire league. Anyway, the Lions have been vastly over-rated when facing a team that has allowed a lot of yards season-to-date. Detroit is 0-11 ATS (-11.1 ppg) when facing a team that has allowed at least 370 yards per games season-to-date, winning only one of the games straight up, despite being favored in five on the eleven and each of the last two. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on the ‘Skins. MTi’s FORECAST: DETROIT 17 Washington 20 As always, comments are welcome. Prof Meyer