Prof Meyer's NFL Side Play All trends quoted here can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
NEW ENGLAND -3 over Baltimore – The Ravens are a team that matches up well vs teams like the Steelers. They do not match up well against teams with poor defenses. They simply don’t have the big-play offensive stars that can capitalize on a below-par defense. The Pats have forced only 2.5 punts per game this season – by far the worst in the league. However, the Ravens are 0-14 ATS vs any team that has forced fewer than 3.8 punts per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is simply:
[B]team=Ravens and oA(o:punts)=20051101[/B]
Note that the Ravens have lost each of their last eight in this situation straight up. Wow.
The Ravens had an easy win last week against the Broncos. They had 36:17 of possession time and won 31-17. However, they did allow Orton to throw for 314 yards and they did fail a couple of times inside the red zone – turning it over on downs once and kicking a field goal the other. This is relevant because the Ravens are 0-4 ATS since the start of the 2009 season when they are off a win in which they failed on at least two red zone attempts, losing every game straight up and failing to cover by an average of 9.2 ppg.
Baltimore has a defense that seems to need to be on the field. They are often flat after a game in which they did not get much action. Indeed, the Ravens are 0-10 ATS (-8.2 ppg) on the road the week after a straight up win in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. Their ONLY straight up win in this situation was a 27-26 win over the Titans as a 7-point favorite in which they trailed 26-7. In the first quarter of these ten games, the Ravens have been outscored 90-17. Talk about coming out flat -- and here they are on the road vs a Patriots’ team that is off a bye. How about a play on New England in the first quarter? Nice.
Indeed, things seem to be going very well for the Ravens. They have won three straight, they are a half-game ahead of the Steelers and they own a road win over Pittsburgh. The Patriots, one the other hand, are a half-game behind the Jets and they already lost to the Jets this season. Baltimore has demonstrated a vulnerability in this spot. The Ravens are 0-7 ATS (-7.5 ppg) on the road when their ATS margin has improved over each of their past two games.
The Patriots are at their bankroll-building best when hosting a team with a strong defense. New England is 8-0-1 ATS (+12.4 ppg) at home vs a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 27 Baltimore 17
As always, comments welcome.
Prof M.
