Prof Meyer's Sunday Night Totals Play All records, stats and trends quoted below can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language.
Indianapolis at NY Giants UNDER 43' - The Colts have faced three non-divisional opponents this season. They have allowed 14, 13 and 9 points in those three games. The big story last week was the fact that the Colts' offense only scored 19 points at home. What has not been mentioned is the fact that their defense held the Chiefs to only nine points and allowed the Chiefs to convert only ONE of ten third down attempts and that lone conversion was on the Chiefs' first possession of the game.
Indy's defense should be fresh here, as their offense had 34:25 of possession time against Kansas City. Indianapolis is 0-9 OU since the start of the 2006 season when they are off a game in which they had 34+ minutes of possession time, staying under by an average of 11.2 ppg. Their defense has allowed an average of 12.9 ppg in this situation. This one has already produced a winner this season, when the Colts won 27-13 in Denver with the OU line at 47.
In addition, the Colts are 0-5 OU (-13.6 ppg) after making more field goals than touchdowns and 0-5 OU (-10.1 ppg) after a game in which their opponent never had first down and goal to go.
The Redskins are off a come-from-behind, overtime win over the Packers last week. Washington never held the lead until they won it. Washington is 0-13 OU when they are off a win in which they trailed at the half, as long as they did not kick five-plus field goals in that game. Washington has stayed under by an average of 9.0 ppg in this spot. Their last active date came in week 11 last season, when they lost 7-6 in Dallas. Nice.
Also, Washington is 0-4 OU at home after a home game in which they allowed their opponent to convert fewer than 33% of their third downs and 0-4 OU after a win in which they had 14 or more drives, staying under by an average of 10.2 ppg.
This line seems a few points too high for these two under these conditions -- and we think it has moved the wrong way. Take the UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: Indianapolis 24 WASHINGTON 13
As always, comments/questions are encouraged.
Prof Meyer
