Prof Meyer's Week 5 NFL Totals Play

Prof Meyer's Week 5 NFL Totals Play All trends and systems quoted here can be verified with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) [B]NY Giants at Houston UNDER 48[/B] -- The Texans finally have a rushing attack. Former Vol Arian Foster has the Texans at the top of various rushing categories so far this season. Houston is number one in the league in rushing yards at 172 per game, averaging an eye-popping 5.55 yards per carry. Houston is also number one in the league in rushing first downs at 9.50 per game. With the Giants' fierce pass rush, it would seem prudent to not have too many deep drops. We expect the Texans to start with a conservative attack on offense, because the Giants' offense is struggling; having scored 17 points or fewer in each of the past three weeks. What the Texans need to avoid is a costly early turnover that sets up the Giants' offense with a short field. This should lead to a low scoring game. Last week against the Bears, the Giants' offense had 33:25 of possession time, which allowed their defense a chance to catch their breath. This is a strong under indicator here. The Giants are 0-15 OU on the road the week after a home game in which they had at least 30 minutes of possession time which was at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. In this vein, we also note that the Giants are 0-7 OU when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average, staying under by an average of 13.1 ppg. Also, it is worth mentioning that the Giants are 0-7 OU (-12.4 ppg) after playing the Bears. Moving to the Texans, we present a trend that we isolated a couple of seasons ago and presented in last season's Killer Sports football annual as Houston's trend #5. It read, "The Texans are 0-8 OU (-17.5 ppg) since December, 2002 when their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks." Since its publication, this trend has produced four winners, moving it to 0-12 OU. Both these teams should feature the rush here -- especially early in the game. There is no hurry to play this one, as we think the number will be bet upward -- it ain't coming down. Also, consider plays on the under in the first quarter and/or the first half. MTi's FORECAST: NY Giants 20 HOUSTON 17

Query to run As you, I hate the data mining, but LOVE the idea of blanket queries (I think the team by team stuff is largely brilliant mind random noise). Ok, you sparked my interest. TEams that are getting good at running likely will stick with it, a bad strategy IMO, but a good one for the under. SO..........can we run how we do 1) Blindly playing 'under' when 2) Both team have seen their rush yardage increase the last two weeks?

[QUOTE=Fezzik;29760]As you, I hate the data mining, but LOVE the idea of blanket queries (I think the team by team stuff is largely brilliant mind random noise). Ok, you sparked my interest. TEams that are getting good at running likely will stick with it, a bad strategy IMO, but a good one for the under. SO..........can we run how we do 1) Blindly playing 'under' when 2) Both team have seen their rush yardage increase the last two weeks?[/QUOTE] Thanks for the idea... The SDQL Text is: [B] p:RY>pp:RY>ppp:RY and op:RY>opp:RY>oppp:RY and NB and p:NB and op:NB and opp:NB and H[/B] the RY stands for rushing yards and the prefixes point to a particular game. For example, pp: is the team's second previous game, op is the opponent's previous game and opp: is the opponent's second previous game, et cetera. The NB stands for "No Bye" because you stipulated, "...each of the past two weeks" instead of each of the last two games. The H stands for home, which is included here only to avoid double-counting of the OU record. The OU record in this situation since 1989 is 34-30 OU (30 overs and 34 unders). Prof M.

Wait: 34-30 OU means 30 overs and 34 unders?

My Mistake. [QUOTE=joelshitshow;29769]Wait: 34-30 OU means 30 overs and 34 unders?[/QUOTE] I made a mistake. Thanks for finding this and allowing me to correct it. 34-30 OU means 34 overs and 30 unders. Dang it. I have to be more careful. Prof M.