Prof Meyer's Week 7 NFL Side All the trends and systems here can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL).
[B]Jacksonville +9.5 over KANSAS CITY[/B] – The last time that Kansas City was laying this many points, it was 2003 and they had Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson rushing the ball. In addition, they are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since week nine 2007 as a home favorite, losing EVERY game straight up! We’ll grab the ample points.
The Jaguars sure looked bad vs the Titans last Monday Night, losing 30-3. However, Jacksonville is a perfect 10-0 ATS in franchise history when they are off a game in which they scored fewer than seven points, as long as they re not laying more than a TD. This team trend cashed already this season when they Jaguars beat the Colts 31-28 as a TD + dog the week after losing 28-3 to the Eagles.
The Jaguars’ performance last week was not nearly as bad as the final score indicates. They just suffered a 4-0 turnover margin and they were 0-3 inside the red zone and 0-2 from first and goal. Their offense was forced to punt the ball away only three times the entire game. We have a league-wide system going here that supports a play on Jacksonville. NFL teams are a combined 20-0 ATS as a dog when they are off a FG+ loss in which they failed on at least three red zone attempts, as long as they did not have more than 400 yards of offense in that game. Check it out yourself with this SDQL text:
p:RZF>=3 and D and p:margin-10 and p:ALD and division!=tpo:division and 0