Prof Meyer's Week Five NFL Side Play All trends and systems quoted below can be verified on-line using the SDQL.
[B]Philadelphia +3' over SAN FRANCISCO[/B] -- The 49ers had all sorts of chances vs the Falcons last week, but lost to drop to 0-4 on the season. This is the first of five straight games in which the 49ers are very likely to be favored, with everyone else in their division at 2-2, they still have a reasonable chance to win the NFC West. Hell, a 6-10 record might be good enough.
However, the fact remains that their defense put forth a supreme, all-out effort last week in an attempt to hang onto an early 14-0 lead, but Atlanta kicked a field goal with two seconds left to win 16-14 and leave the 49ers winless. That loss will be very difficult to recover from. Indeed, the league is 1-27 ATS at home when they are off a loss as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half, as long as they are not laying double digits. Last week this system cashed by playing against the Raiders. Here, the 49ers are in this spot and they are the play-against team.
We have a couple of interesting scheduling trends that indicate Philadelphia is the play. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS after playing the Redskins, covering by an average of 20.0 ppg and 6-0 ATS when they get a team off a game vs the Falcons, covering by an average of 14.1 ppg. Nice margins.
Philadelphia is off a disappointing game vs Washington, in McNabbâ•’s return. We'll give them a Mulligan for that one. Here, we note that Andy Reid's Eagles are the best team in the league to invest in when they are off a disappointing game. Philadelphia is 9-0 ATS when they are off a double-digit ATS loss, covering by an average of a whopping 14.8 ppg. They won every game straight up and each of the last five were double-digit wins.
In week 15 last season, the 49ers marched into Philadelphia. They were an 8 point dog and they lost 27-13, while suffering from a 4-2 takeaway margin. San Francisco has revenge here, but the hard-nosed Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS when a non-divisional opponent is seeking revenge for a loss from the previous season in which they suffered a turnover margin of at least 2. Philadelphia has won these six games by an average of 16.8 ppg and covered by an average of 9.8 ppg.
The 49ers' offense can't score any points and they keep committing turnovers -- yet they are still getting respect from the bettors. We can't figure it out -- especially this week when their defense should be mentally and physically exhausted after last week's heroic but fruitless performance. San Francisco is 0-9 ATS when they are off a game in which they committed at least three turnovers and scored fewer points than expected, falling short of expectations by an average of 14.5 ppg -- more than two touchdowns.
The Eagles are really getting insulted by the linesmakers. They are undefeated (2-0) on the road this season yet they are a field-goal plus underdog to an 0-4 team. We expect the Eagles to respond favorably here and take advantage of a reeling 49ers team. Consider a moneyline play on Philadelphia as well.
MTi's FORECAST: Philadelphia 27 SAN FRANCISCO 10
As always, comments welcome.
