Prof Meyer's Week Two Selections w/SDQL

Prof Meyer's Week Two Selections w/SDQL Arizona +6’ over ATLANTA – The Falcons battled and battled last week but came up short in overtime, 15-9. NFL teams have a very hard time living up to the linesmakers’ expectations in this spot. They are a combined 10-38 ATS since 1996 as a favorite the week after an overtime loss on the road – as long as they did not blow a double-digit halftime lead in that game. The league was 1-3 ATS in this spot in 2006, 0-3 ATS in 2007, 1-5 ATS in 2008 and 1-3 ATS in 2009. See for yourself with this SDQL text: F and p:OT>0 and NB and p:LA and p:M2=1996 Battling the Steelers in a close game has been debilitating for NFL teams. The Steelers have played tough, smashmouth football for many seasons now and fighting with them when every play counts has crippled a team’s performance the following week. Specifically, NFL teams are a combined 0-14 ATS when they are off a game vs the Steelers that was tied at the end of the third quarter and they held Pittsburgh to fewer than ten fourth quarter points. Teams in this spot have failed to cover by an average of 9.7 ppg. Check it out yourself with this SDQL text: p:M3=0 and po:team=Steelers and po:P4=1994 Note that there were THREE active dates from last season. Certainly, the Falcons had a heroic, all out effort last week. They needed to go all out every down vs a Steelers’ team that was emotionally charged. History has demonstrated that they will have a tough time recovering in this spot and covering this line should be a real challenge. The Cardinals did all they could to give the Rams a chance last week, fumbling seven times and committing ten penalties. They eked out a 17-13 win, with Derek Anderson throwing 42 passes without a pick. The Falcons simply have not matched up well vs passing teams. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 2007 when facing a team that has passed the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date, losing every single game straight up in this spot. Historically, road teams that won on the road last week are underestimated by the linesmakers. The league is 21-2-1 ATS on the road on Sunday when they are off a win as a road favorite. The SDQL text is simply: day=Sunday and A and p:WAF and 20081207

Baltimore - Cincinnati Baltimore -2’ over CINCINNATI – Our 5-Star 2010 Futures Play of the Year on Cincinnati UNDER 8’ wins got off to a good start as the Bengals were non-competitive vs the Patriots in week one. The public still does not realize how bad the Bengals are, as it is easy to explain away their loss in week one simply because it was in New England. They will be exposed further here. Baltimore was swept by the Bengals last season and will be ready to put them in their place here. The fact that the Ravens are off a SU and ATS win and the Bengals are off a SU and ATS loss is evidence to support a play on Baltimore. The Ravens are 8-0 ATS off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week, covering the spread by an average of 13.1 ppg. Indeed, the Ravens have a merciless personality and will not let up on this weak Bengals’ squad. In addition, Baltimore is 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS in franchise history as a favorite when they are off a win as a dog. The SDQL text is: team=Ravens and F and p:WD They have won these 14 games by an average of 16.0 ppg and covered by an average of 8.5 ppg. Their only non-cover in this spot was a 27-17 win over the Browns laying 12’ at home. Unlike many other teams in this league, the Ravens are inspired after winning SU as a dog. Furthermore, Baltimore is 7-0 ATS (+14.6 ppg) as a road favorite when they are off a game in which they had at least three first downs via their opponent’s penalty and 8-0 ATS when they were a road dog last week and their opponent never had a Goal-to-Go, covering by an average of 13.8 ppg. New England dominated the Bengals, although Cincinnati closed the gap somewhat in garbage time. The Patriots scored the first 24 points of the game before the Bengals kicked a 54-yard field goal just before the half. Since the divisional realignment in 2002, Cincinnati is a defeatist 0-13 ATS when they are off a game in which they trailed by at least a TD after the first quarter and at the half, as long as they weren’t more than a ten-point dog in that game. The SDQL text is: p:M1=2002 Finally, the Bengals are 0-10 ATS (-11.9 ppg) when hosting a team that has averaged 30+ rushing attempts per game and is better than 600 on the season, 0-8 ATS (-10.9 ppg) as a home dog when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date and a gutless 0-7 ATS (-13.6 ppg) at home when one game under 500 after playing on the road. FORECAST: Baltimore 20 CINCINNATI 6

Philadelphia - Detroit Philadelphia -6’ over DETROIT – The Lions tangled with the Bears last week and – though they had their chances -- came out on the losing end of a 19-14 score. They seem to be getting a lot of attention here because they played the Bears tough in Chicago. The Eagles, on the other hand, were beaten at home by the Packers. However, the fact remains that the Lions’ win total for the season was 5 and the Eagles was 8. We think the Lions are getting too much respect here. The Lions have been absolutely terrible when they have a chance to get to 500. When they are one game below 500, the Lions are 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS losing by an average of 21.5 ppg and failing to cover by an average of 14.5 ppg. Detroit has lost each one of the eight games by AT LEAST 13 points. On top of this problem, they lost their starting QB. Of course, the Eagles did as well, but they have Michael Vick stepping in for his first start since 2006. This is a situation that Vick has been hoping for and we expect him to rise to the occasion.

The Eagles, with hard-nosed HC Andy Reid, has rewarded their backers in this spot. Philadelphia is 12-0 ATS off any home game in which they trailed by at least a TD at the half, covering by an average of 9.5 ppg. In addition, the Eagles are 29-7-1 ATS during the regular season when they are off a TD+ loss on Sunday in which they had fewer than 36 minutes of possession time. In their last nine in this spot, Philadelphia is 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS. In their two active dates in this spot last season, they hammered the Chiefs 34-14 at home and beat the Bears 24-20 in Chicago. Many are taking note of the Lions’ pass rush, as they sacked Cutler four times last week. However, Detroit is 0-12-1 ATS when they are off a game in which they recorded at least four sacks, as long as they are not getting double-digits. The Lions have fallen short of the number in this spot by an average of 14.2 ppg. Ouch. What evidence is that that they will be any different here? Why aren’t they getting more than a TD? One reason we are seeing on the blogs is that the Lions have road games in Minnesota and Green Bay upcoming and “need” a win here. Well, the Lions are a abysmal 0-8 ATS at home when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. They were actually favored in five of the eight, but lost every time by at least a TD. Their average ATS margin in this spot is minus 15.6 ppg. Brutal. Last season they lost to the Rams 17-10 laying 3’ and were annihilated 34-12 by the Packers at home. Has the public forgotten about the speedy Eagles’ receivers? With them and Vick’s ability to run, Philadelphia should have no trouble scoring points vs this Lions. In fact, we expect Vick’s performance to start a QB controversy in Philly. This is the Eagles’ easiest opponent ALL season – by far. Andy Reid should have his team ready. Lay this number. FORECAST: Philadelphia 30 DETROIT 17

LA Rams - Oakland St Louis +3’ over OAKLAND – Since the 2003 season, these two have the quiniela for the biggest money-burners in the league. Oakland is 41-70-2 ATS since the start of the 2003 season and the Rams are 47-67-2 ATS. We’ll grab the points here, as bad teams can’t be trusted as favorites. Oakland is 0-11 ATS (-11.6 ppg) as a favorite – winning only ONE of the eleven straight up. In addition, Oakland is 0-8 ATS (-6.8 ppg) when they are off a road loss that dropped them one game under 500 on the season and 0-14 ATS (-9.6) after a loss in which they got at least three first downs via their opponent's penalty. One positive aspect of the Rams’ loss to the Cardinals in week one was the fact that they had 32:51 of possession time. Their defense should be relatively fresh and their offense should be ready to bounce back from their four-turnover performance in week one. Indeed, St Louis is a perfect 10-0 ATS on Sunday when they are off a home game in which they had 32+ minutes of possession time, including 3-0 ATS last season. The Raiders’ pass defense is always cited as a strength of theirs. However, poor teams often have good pass defense numbers simply because their opponents are running the ball with a substantial lead. As evidence, the Raiders’ opponents attempted an average of 27.31 passes per game last season. No other NFL team had a number lower than 30. The reason why teams have not been passing against the Raiders is not that their pass defense is excellent -- it is because they are running the clock with a big lead. Looking at the numbers more closely reveals that the Raiders were the second worst team in the league in opponent’s yards per completion in 2009 with 12.75. It appears the Raiders’ ranking of 9th in the league is passing yards allowed is merely the result of their opponents running the ball with a lead. As evidence, Tennessee scored 38 points against them last week and Vince Young was an unspectacular 13-of-17 passing for 140 yards. The Titans ran all over the Raiders’ defense, despite the fact that the Raiders knew Tennessee would be rushing the ball. Tennessee averaged 5.3 yards per rush and had 205 yards rushing. We have an active system here that indicates the Raiders are in a play-against spot. The league is 0-11 ATS (-9.5 ppg) in game 2 when they allowed more than 5.25 yards per carry, had less than 31 minutes of possession time and lost in the opener. We’re getting the better team and points here. MTi’s FORECAST: St Louis 16 OAKLAND 10