Prop picks for NFL weekend

Prop picks for NFL weekend SF-ATL Combined field goals OVER 3.5 +135 Highest EV play of the week at 28% Completions - Kaepernick UNDER 17 +100 Almost got this one last week and I like it at anything above +100. Might go higher Receptions Boldin UNDER 4.5 +105 Line is upside down from last week. Might be able to arb this one. I have 5 other props I'm watching, looking for the price to get right. Will post them if it does.

I just went through my watch list and I found three plays that moved into the right price targets I set: SFO ATL TOTAL SACKS OVER 4 @ +105 COMPLETIONS KAEPERNICK UNDER 17 @ +115 I'm doubling up on this play because I liked it at +100, love it at +115. The fairy tale ends tomorrow RECEPTIONS B LLOYD UNDER 4.5 @ +115 The line is upside down. Nice chunk of +EV in this one.

To me the real question is whether the lack of Gronk has already been reflected in the lines. Welker won't have a game like last week. The receptions have to go somewhere. From a handicapping perspective, I'm looking for Hoomanawanui props. He's the #2 tight end now, and when Gronk was hurt he had several deep balls. I'd expect his total for reception yards to be in the single digits. He has routes that put him downfield. Houston had DBs on him last week, but I don't know that Baltimore will use the same plan.

Good points. The lines have only moved a little bit so there must have been some "gronk factor in them already. That's a pretty obscure prop you're looking for. Do you live in LV? I haven't seen it anywhere in town.

No. I just mean if I saw it I would take it. If NE wins, there will be a prop for him for the SB, probably "o/u 8' yards" if he is 0-fer tomorrow. That will be a good one to grab.

Reception yards? I think he'd be more of a total receptions prop.

They could offer both. I remember last year Ochocinco receptions as well as Edelman receiving yards, for example.

Aaron Hernandez opened higher than he would if Gronk were playing, but only by a recep at most and 8 or 9 yds. Hoom had zero targets last week in 50 snaps but may see something this week. If all three RBs can go though, that is most likely where the touches will go. Ridley is not a pass catcher so it's the Woodhead/Vereen combo that is the most likely to benefit. I think the Pats plan on trying to run the older Ravens defense ragged using some no-huddle and lots of dink and dunk stuff to wear them out. They are older and played 5 quarters last week so put some miles on them by using that trio of young backs.

FWIW I really think frankb has some great insights here. When it is combined with value investor's thread it even makes more sense. If Brady's stats aren't as good with Gronk off the field as it is so combined with Baltimore being the D the short passing game and running game seems the way to go. I'll take it that it means an endorsement of the players mentioned for potential over's. I also like this strategy in terms of Ray Lewis tackles and assists over 10 or 10.5 at plus odds I saw. He had 10 tackles and 7 assists LW. It would seem this strategy will involve him quite a bit as he'll have responsibility in the middle of the field for some of those running back drop offs. I would think this number is some career average or even lower because it is assumed he is less effective. I think Ray averages 9 tackles a game throughout his career. If anything as a guy gets worse----but he stays on the field----I think he may average more tackles as he continually gets challenged. Of course if they break him he'll miss a few tackles......but he may get an assist after the guy blew by him. I know 17 was in an extra quarter but I figure you get a good run for your money at 10 or 10.5 with assists. In the NFC the obvious info is that Wilson runs a version of the read option and Atlanta certainly did an okay job stopping his running although I thought he picked up some key yards at times. Wilson really burned the Atlanta D with Miller for some big yards. It was so systematic and given Atlanta really almost lost the game over their defensive implosion you might expect they'll tighten that up but they might not. After seeing CK how much can you tighten it up? They'll probably stay in zone and contain CK to the extent they can and the TE might get a few plays especially if their D cheats a little to stop Crabtree. I guess I'm thinking they'll go the same way as they did against Seattle and make CK make a few plays to Vernon Davis and see if they need to make the adjustments to cover Davis better. The reason they may do that is CK doesn't have the best chemistry with VD is what I understand and is much better with Crabtree. But Harbaugh I'll guess tells CK that he needs to look for VD or DW a few times. Will it be enough to get an over on the TE props? If there is a gift 2 completions it probably will be. The other angle is the yards Miller was getting Davis or Walker got to be thinking 25 yard plays if Miller can do it. Heck, Davis goes down the field like crazy anyway on a normal D from what I've seen. So against a zone whch is worried about CK running and MC more than him, he's got to get a target down the field. Of course Atl may decide that was so bad what they allowed to Miller that they'll do something different. I'm surprised for the game itself Atlanta isn't a pick on the board. They're an obvious sharp side. They're at home. I recognize CK has played well but it is shocking he gashed GB for as many yards as he did. He's only started a handful of games in his career. I would think playing on the road in a loud dome has to introduce some wrinkles in his game. Atlanta will be hungry and after getting his 1st playoff win I would think Smith and Ryan would be less tight this week. The Crabtree investigation hasn't gotten much play and probably isn't worth anything but if it is I doubt it is in SF's favour. It is completely unlike a situation like the KC LB earlier this year where his circumstances almost deflate the opposition as much as his own team. This is just a distraction to the player on the field and management. Atlanta could care less. Anyway, I'll be on Atl +5 if I can or +4.5 certainly think SF is an excellent team.

Kaepernick's development vs loud crowds is a consideration. @NO the team won, and he had decent numbers against a bad D. @St. Louis he single handedly cost the team the win with an errant pitch deep in his own territory. And @Seattle the team was destroyed. Atlanta's D stinks worse than NO, but crowd noise may be a consideration. Yes, he has a good chemistry with Crabtree, which surprised me, but it's there. The issue with Davis is that he has been hurt a lot (concussion, etc.) since Kaepernick took over as starter. If they had a good practice together this week, that should not be an issue. Atlanta will leave something open for this offense, so it comes down to the team figuring it out and Kaepernick being able to take advantage of it. Hope this helps. About to go to sleep so not thinking too clearly.