Props for the Weekend 1/12/2013

Props for the Weekend 1/12/2013 I evaluated 21 props this weekend - it's kind of like my on spring training for the SB in a couple weeks here :) Here's my top 5 plays. I'm presenting 4 now because I'm still waiting to get down on the 5th one: Completions - Rodgers UNDER 25.5 @ +105 This one is going under, way under Receptions - R. Moss UNDER 2.5 @ +105 I love lines where they should be making you lay odds but dont . . . Completions - Flacco UNDER 20.5 @ +110 I took this last week and I see no reason to not take it today BAL-DEN Combined Sacks OVER 4.5 @ -120 This is my worst bet of the day and it *only* has a 19% EV rate :)

The fifth prop is as follows Completions - Kaepernick UNDER 16.5 @ -110 This line is as fun as it gets

Thanks for the post. Two questions for you. First, how much of a line variance would you accept before not playing a wager? ie you have it at +110 but you can only get +100 you lay off etc. Second at what point would you actually play the other side as +ev. ie you have it at +110 but now the other side is +110. Also, on the Flacco Und bet it seems that this game may be different from last week in that Balt is a large dog and there is a chance they are trailing and have to air it our more. Thoughts? And thanks again.

[QUOTE=bkeiller;56146]Thanks for the post. Two questions for you. First, how much of a line variance would you accept before not playing a wager? ie you have it at +110 but you can only get +100 you lay off etc. Second at what point would you actually play the other side as +ev. ie you have it at +110 but now the other side is +110. Also, on the Flacco Und bet it seems that this game may be different from last week in that Balt is a large dog and there is a chance they are trailing and have to air it our more. Thoughts? And thanks again.[/QUOTE] Both good questions. With the Flacco pick (and all of them, really) I try to not get caught up in items like the ones you mentioned, I make my plays strictly on math. I focus on high probability, high EV bets. If I take enough of those, I trust that the math will take care of me in the long run. For your first question, that varies quite a bit. Again, I use math to develop my own lines and I know what the lines *should* be at and what they are. So that gives me an idea of how much variance I can accept. I actually find more "good" bets than what I post, but those are bets where the EV (and the variance of the lines) is much smaller, thus present more risk (in case my math is wrong) and more bankroll variance. Generally, speaking, you can take my bets with a few dimes of variance since I post the good ones. Here's the what I think the lines [B]SHOULD [/B]be at (ie the maximum variance you should take): Completions - Kaepernick [B]SHOULD be -300[/B] Completions - Rodgers [B]SHOULD be -220[/B] Receptions - R. Moss [B]SHOULD be -290[/B] Completions - Flacco [B]SHOULD be -160[/B] BAL-DEN Combined Sacks [B]SHOULD be -187[/B] So you can see how sometimes I say the lines are "upside down". Coming back to Flacco, they should be asking you to [B]LAY [/B]160 but they're laying you odds. I'm going to take that wager playoffs, preseason, regular season, deer season . . . :)

I went 2-3 with these picks

But you should have gone 4-1

[QUOTE=Fezzik;56163]But you should have gone 4-1[/QUOTE] How do you mean? Sure, 4-1 would have been nice. But I guess you mean you liked 4 of the picks and they were all solid bets??? If so, I'm complimented - thank you :)

Colonial......tough loss on Kaepernick under 16 1/2 completions, but very interested to know how you go about pricing these props. To say that Kaepernick is -300 to go under 16 1/2 seems like a huge stretch to me. In his 8 starts this year he only had one game in which he threw for less than 16 completions, and that was the NE game where he was nursing a huge lead. And since he was playing a tough GB team (or so we thought), there was a greater chance that he would be behind in this game than a typical regular season game, which usually results in more passing. Looking at his stats, I just can't see how you could confidently say that he would go under this number 3 out of 4 times. Any insight into your pricing techniques would be read with great interest.

[QUOTE=johnboy;56174]Colonial......tough loss on Kaepernick under 16 1/2 completions, but very interested to know how you go about pricing these props. To say that Kaepernick is -300 to go under 16 1/2 seems like a huge stretch to me. In his 8 starts this year he only had one game in which he threw for less than 16 completions, and that was the NE game where he was nursing a huge lead. And since he was playing a tough GB team (or so we thought), there was a greater chance that he would be behind in this game than a typical regular season game, which usually results in more passing. Looking at his stats, I just can't see how you could confidently say that he would go under this number 3 out of 4 times. Any insight into your pricing techniques would be read with great interest.[/QUOTE] I'll double check my numbers to see how I got there. If what you're saying is indeed correct, then yes, that number should not have been -300. Ill post back soon. As for my pricing techniques, I think that some of the more astute players on this board can figure it out :) But mostly, I maintain my own English Premiere League database and create my own reports from it (I'm a computer programmer, so I can do those things easily). I'm also thinking of maintaining my own NHL database for the season and apply my techniques to that.

I wish I knew how to interpret the shortened NHL season. Travel schedules will be different with fewer (none?) interconference games. Not sure what data you're using, but Kaepernick not starting the whole year meant a smaller sample size.