Props for the Weekend 1/12/2013

You may have taken all 16 games into account to make that line which is obviously something you have to watch out for if you are using/trusting a computer program to drag in the numbers. I thought your sacks line was too high as well. 4.5 flat looked like the right line. Your Moss line looked good but with him starting I don't know if I'd have made him as high as -290. 2UN seemed like a good line.

[QUOTE=frankb22;56193]You may have taken all 16 games into account to make that line which is obviously something you have to watch out for if you are using/trusting a computer program to drag in the numbers. I thought your sacks line was too high as well. 4.5 flat looked like the right line. Your Moss line looked good but with him starting I don't know if I'd have made him as high as -290. 2UN seemed like a good line.[/QUOTE] Well it's not so much about the number as it is about the price. In some cases I will accept the posted number as the correct one but the price is still off. I think the latest occurrence of this was the Flacco completions in the first playoffs weekend. That got driven up to +135 on the under at Stations. There's a variety of numbers (including the casino number) that make the price on the under +EV

I found my error on kaepernick. I know he had a shortened season of 13 games *played in* but some of those games were during garbage time and in two of them he had 0 completions AND attempts. So my mistake was not filtering the data down to the games he *started* which was only 8 games. In that scenario the casino line makes sense and my selection (at -110) was a break-even proposition since that line is correct by the casino. Any deviation from -110 would have been -EV and I obviously would not have taken this wager at break-even. But I'll still keep it as part of my records to remind me of this mistake.