Quantifying NFL rule changes

Quantifying NFL rule changes In past years, I would have already made my initial power ratings for each NFL team's offense and defense. For obvious reasons, I have not been able to make a strong starting raw number for any team for my handicapping of NFL totals. Once we have the completion of free agency and rookie signings, the process can begin for assigning power ratings for each team's total. I will spend a lot of time analyzing preseason games in order to establish a strong set of solid raw numbers for the beginning of the regular season. I am looking for input for a macro viewpoint of how the rule changes will impact scoring for the 2011 season.It is fairly obvious to state that moving the kickoff to the 35 yard line will reduce scoring. The number of touchbacks will increase dramatically. In 2010, approximately 16% of kickoffs resulted in a touchback. Expecting this percentage to more than double in 2011 is not unrealistic. Additonally, we would expect far fewer kickoff return tds. With worse starting field postion assured in 2011, this rule change will reduce scoring. In my opinion, the lower scoring from the kickoff rule changes may be offset somewhat by the league's emphasis and rule changes regarding player safety. In 2010, the NFL's crackdown on head injuries caused scoring to increase to nearly 44 points per game. There was a dramatic increase in scoring after week nine ( when the NFL started fining defensive players more aggressively for hits to the helmet). I have been tracking season overs/unders for the past 15 years. Normally, the percentage of season o/u's trend to a 50/50 proposition by season's end. In 2010, the overs cashed at a rate of more than 55% through week 16 ( I usually downgrade results of week 17 because so many teams rest starters before the playoffs begin). Last year's rules against hits on defenseless players have been broadened for the 2011 season. Fifteen yard penalties, game ejection and possible suspension will be implemented for 1)hitting a player in the head 2)hitting a runner whose forward progress has been stopped3) hitting a punt returner who is "defenseless"4) making contact with a player using the helmet when leaving your feet 5) hitting a player who is not running with the ball ( punter,kicker, qb after an interception etc.). Obviously, these rules wil ltake away some the agressiveness and may cause some receivers to gain confidence when running routes "over the middle." Besides taking away some of the intimidation factor, some dominant defensive players may be either ejected and/or suspended. Totals handicappers will obviously adjust their raw numbers lower because of the kickoff rule change. However, I wonder if proper attention will also be paid for the league's emphasis on protecting offensive players (which should skew the norm to higher scoring). In the past, I made my initial NFL totals by normalizing my numbers to correlate with projected league scoring for the upcoming season. It is usually my first step when beginning the work on making an offensive and defensive number for each team.Right now, there are so many intervening variables ( no OTA's or offseason mini-camps, coaching changes,player conditioning, late movement of free agents, probably less contribution from rookies, rule changes etc.) that impact the making of a strong set of opening numbers. I would welcome any input or suggestions regarding the impact of rule changes for overall scoring for the upcoming season. As stated, this may be the most difficult season for making a strong total for the first month of the regular season. However, the books face the same dilemma.If we do our work properly, there may be some opportunities to take advantage of any weak numbers posted early in the season. Any and all opinions would be appreciated. Thanks, charliej

I agree the K.O. rule and the 'new flags for excessive tackling' will offset, but week1 always a good under week, and now we have a jumangi of new players/new coaches rushing to get in there..................I bet every 'under' on the board EXCEPT Philly/STL and Dal/JETS . I think the entire world will continue to do the same thing......mabye some overs at post.

Fez: I don't disagree with anything that you stated. However, I am more interested in being able to adjust my numbers accurately to begin the season.If there any other members who make their own totals, I would be most interested in seeing what type of adjustments they anticipate making. There is a great opportunity to pick off weak numbers because the books face the same dilemma that we handicappers do.

It's such a tremendous opportunity. The roster changes and shortened training camp effects will reduce every week, but the rule changes will slowly increase scoring every week -- some teams more than others. This season when you watch preseason games, look to see which teams are adjusting their play, i.e., throwing over the middle more, taking fewer fair catches on punts, etc. Also, do you consider these new rules more arbitrary? Finding out who the officials are for a game could have more of an effect. Teams with smarter coaching staffs may have their defense play more aggressively if the officials that week are known to not flag every little thing. Watch media coverage leading up to Week 1 regarding the new rules against hitting. The higher the profile, the more likely it turns a game around. The teams with the toughest D when their opponent is running the two-minute drill will be in an interesting position. And when will Patrick Willis drill someone on the last play of the game, setting up a game-winning FG with no time remaining? Lots to think about.

Like yall said it will be hard to balance between the two factors. To help out a little bit with quantifying the kickoff aspect. Here's a link I had bookmarked for specific yardage gained by point on the field in the NFL. To tell you the truth, I haven't looked at the article enough to make sure if it is overall scoring or scoring advantage for one team, but I think it will help. [url]https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/3/28/2076447/the-toolbox-equivalent-point-values[/url]

There goes the Devin Hester Offense for the Bears. Lovie such a smart guy, I'm sure he will come up with something. lol.