Question For The Sharps

Question For The Sharps This may be a stupid question but I thought I would ask anyway. I was looking at some alternate lines at matchbook and was wondering if betting these two sides would have a positve EV over the long haul. I would think no because if the game lands on ten you lose a bet and push a bet. Thanks. Atlanta +9 +142 New Orleans -10 -129

This is about a breakeven proposition. If the 10 falls more than about 5.4% of the time it's -EV; less than that +EV. This is not counting any commissions you might have to pay. Bet 946 @ +142 to win 1343 and 1290 @ -129 to win 1000 on the other. You will either win 54 or lose 946.

I Don't Understand Your Math [QUOTE=donniep;8125]This is about a breakeven proposition. If the 10 falls more than about 5.4% of the time it's -EV; less than that +EV. This is not counting any commissions you might have to pay. Bet 946 @ +142 to win 1343 and 1290 @ -129 to win 1000 on the other. You will either win 54 or lose 946.[/QUOTE] Help me here, Donniep... If one bets a $1,000 on Atlanta at +142 and a $1,000 on New Orleans at -129, one either wins $130 ($1,420 - $1,290) if Atlanta wins or breaks even if New Orleans wins. What am I missing here? Thanks!

You are missing that if NO wins by 10, you lose one bet and push the other.

[QUOTE=sean1;8127]You are missing that if NO wins by 10, you lose one bet and push the other.[/QUOTE] I agree if it falls on 9 one loses $1,290 and if it falls on 10 one loses a $1,000. What I didn't understand was donniep's use of the amounts he showed as his bet size, i.e. a $1,000 to lose $1,290 on New Orleans but only $946 to win @1,343 on Atlanta. Thanks!

[QUOTE=donniep;8125]This is about a breakeven proposition. If the 10 falls more than about 5.4% of the time it's -EV; less than that +EV. This is not counting any commissions you might have to pay. Bet 946 @ +142 to win 1343 and 1290 @ -129 to win 1000 on the other. You will either win 54 or lose 946.[/QUOTE] I appreciate the help Donniep. Thank you.

Made an error as I thought the line on Atlanta was +9.5 instead of 9. You would go win-push on both the 10 AND the 9. The win-push will actually occur about 6.5% of the time, making it - EV for sure.

Is this percentage derived from how often ANY game lands on 9 or 10 or how often games WITH A LINE OF 9, 9', 10 land on 9 or 10? Is there a big difference? Which approach makes more sense?

Mobile Bandit, The reason I sized the bets the way I did was so that you would win the same amount if the game didn't fall 10. As I mentioned below/(above), I misread the original post, thinking it was Atlanta +9.5. I'm not certain if you have to take the same amount of both bets, or if you can choose how much you want of each. I assumed the two bets were separate entities and that you could take as much as you wanted of either play.

joelshitshow, Got basically the same results using 9.5 to 11 and from 10.5 to 13. All games was about 1.5% less on the 10 and the 9 was about the same in both samples.