LSU could be a good UNDER team this year with John Chavis as the new DC coming in from Tennessee.
Auburn as an OVER team. They have a new OC Gus Malzahn who was at Tulsa the L2Y. The year before he arrived, Tulsa avg 27.7 in 06'. In his 2 years at Tulsa they avg 41.1 in 07' and 47.2 in 08'. I know that was against CUSA defenses, but an Auburn offense will def have more highly touted players.
Illinois will be more balanced on offense and not as pass happy as Mike Locksley (the new HC at New Mexico) was. The new OC is Mike Schultz from TCU and they were extremely balanced and ran the ball quite a bit.
Purdue as an UNDER team. New HC, new OC and new DC. Their recruiting class actually ranked under Indiana's (which is rare) and they will battle IU for the doormat of the Big 10.
Indiana, not sure what they will be, but they are moving to the Pistol offense that Nevada-Reno runs. Kellen Lewis, great running QB is gone, and Ben Chappell is the new FT starter. IU hasn't run the ball well though in years. Defense will be a little better.
Mizzou also has 2 new coordinators and lose the majority of their top skill position guys and 7 all-conference defenders.
Iowa State as a rare UNDER team in the Big 12. The new HC is Paul Rhoads who was the DC at Pitt and LY at Auburn. He's an excellent defensive coach. They also only have 3 conf games at home (1 in KC). So I expect this coach to be much more defensive minded.
Clemson as an UNDER team. New HC, new OC and new DC (Kevin Steele, L2Y at Bama as DC and also coached under Mickey Andrews at FSU). Spiller is now the guy at RB and they don't have another RB to carry the load like Davis did.
At BC, long-time DC Frank Spaziani takes over as HC. They also have a new OC as well.
Miami new OC (3rd in 5 yrs) and new DC could be an under team even though they finally have 1 true starting QB (Jacory Harris, Marve transferred).
Virginia may get some looks at OVERS this year. Al Groh offed his son Mike and brought in Gregg Brandon (former BG HC) as the new OC. Also, Jameel Sewell returns from a RS year to retake the starting QB position. They have 3 QB's who have starting experience (Marc Verica and Vic Hall, an option QB who starts at CB).
USC was the best D in the nation LY, but they only have 3 starters back and a new DC. They can reload with talent, but I don't see them allowing only 9 ppg this year. New starting QB, but all of the major offensive weapons (sans Pat Turner) return. Entire starting OL returns.
I expect UCLA's offense to be better in 2nd year under Chow. However, it comes down to whether Kevin Craft starts at QB. If he does, UNDERS, if RS Fr Nick Crissman or Kevin Prince start, more OVERS.
Oregon UNDER. New HC (Kelly) ran their best offense ever with all the personnel changes during the season. Their new OC didn't get hired until after spring practice. Oregon will be easier to prepare for now that teams have had a chance to scout Masoli.
Washington OVER. Offense will be much better with Sarkisian as HC and Doug Nussmeier (OC at Fresno LY). Defense will be a little better with Nick Holt also leaving as USC DC's. Defense has 10 starters back, but gave up 39 a game LY. Not a lot of talent on that side of the ball either. Offense has some decent pieces to work with.
Rutgers UNDER, esp 1st H of the season. They put up crazy offensive numbers in the L6 gms of the year b/c they thought their season was a lost cause and they just let Teel through the ball every play.
Syracuse OVER. New HC Doug Marrone was the OC with the Saints the L3Y. Rob Spence (former Clemson OC) always had inj players at Clemson to shuffle around and usually had solid offenses. New DC Scott Shafer (at Mich LY and at W Mich as DC) likes to bring relentless pressure and his teams force TO's. Robinson was a fish out of water as a HC. Marrone is an offensive-minded coach and with a once-proud program on the skids right now, he'll want to at least make Cuse FB exciting again.
Utah UNDER. 2 new coordinators and losing a 3-ye starter at QB and all their WR;s. Defense should be solid with 5 of their front 7 back including the top 4 tacklers.
San Diego State UNDER. New HC (Hoke from Ball State), new OC (Al Borges, who had his best yrs at Auburn) and new DC (Rocky Long from New Mexico). Rocky Long is a terrific defensive coach and always was at New Mexico. Hoke's offenses were never that good at Ball State until NFL talent Nate Davis came along.
Wyoming OVER. New HC is Dave Christensen (OC at Toledo and Mizzou under Pinkel) so he is an off-minded coach. Marcus Arroyo, former San Jose QB, is the new OC. Wyoming started 3 diff QB's LY and Joe Glenn panicked when Sween, by far their best QB, had early TO issues b/c Glenn knew he was on hot seat. With Sween cemented as the starter, I expect better off numbers.
New Mexico agree with Fezz. UNDER. New HC, OC and DC.
UTEP UNDER. Vittatoe is terrific QB. However, their D was porous LY. They lost 11 players on their 2-deep to season-ending injuries LY. They also had a new DC (who was at New Mex under Long) and never called the signals b/c Long did that. I expect him to perform better in this role in his 2nd go-around.
SMU OVER. 2nd year of June Jones run and shoot. I expect better numbers out of the offense. They have to go on the road to Tulsa and Houston (2 best Off in CUSA) and they will still give up a ton of points. They play at home on a fast turf in Dallas.
Rice UNDER. No coaching change here, but the loss of QB Clement and WR's Casey and Dillard are HUGE. Plus, they have 9 starters back on D.
Southern Miss UNDER. Fedora improved the offense, but one thing I noticed is when their backs were against the wall and they had to win their L3 games to get bowl eligible, they were more conservative in the play calling. They pounded the ball and engaged in a short pass game. Defense only gave up 9 ppg their L4 reg season games.
Fresno UNDER 2 new coordinators and replacing a 3-year starter at QB. They are no longer the WAC darlings. When Fresno was knocking off big time teams, they played tough, physical defense. I expect Hill to get them to return to form. They have a strong platoon of RBs and with a first-year starter at QB and a new OC, I expect Fresno to be more run-oriented.
Hawaii OVER. Alexander 2nd year as starting QB. UH only avg 24 ppg LY. The offense will be more explosive this year. Their defense, on the other hand, returns 2 starters.
New Mexico State UNDER. Mumme to defensive guru Walker is a big pendulum swing in the oppo direction.
Army OVER. Great D-1AA coach Rich Ellerson (from Cal Poly, who had Wisconsin beat in Madison LY) comes in. He ran the triple option at Poly and will do the same here. Army ran the option LY and had growing pains. They should be better acquainted this year and plus Ellerson throws quite a bit out of this formation, at least a lot more than usual. They ran the triple option at Poly and had a WR drafted in the 3rd round LY. Army avg 15 ppg LY. I would expect them to be at about 22-24 ppg this year.
Toledo OVER. 9 starters back on O. New HC Beckman was DC at Okie State, so I don't think much of that b/c they didn't play a lick of defense. The offense should be better than it was under lame duck Amstutz.
Ball State UNDER. New HC (Parrish was OC LY), but they lose Nate Davis at QB, 3 of the top 4 WR's and four OL starters. Davis is a HUGE loss. Entire D-Line is back and they weren't too bad (25 sacks) and should be real good against the run.
Eastern Michigan UNDER. New HC is Ron English (former DC at Michigan and most recently Louisville). Defensive-minded coach. I expect him to run a more conventional offense in lieu of the spread (which I guess is now conventional in CFB these days).
