Reaching out for thoughts

Reaching out for thoughts Hey everyone, new to the site here and very excited to see what is out there. I have been betting NFL, CFB, etc for about 10 years now and do so on a couple sites. There is a bet type on Bodog that I periodically go back to that I know I shouldn't but have had tons of success with. I am no rookie and I know this is a sucker bet but I have a thought and looking for feedback. I am sure some of you are familiar with it but it is called the sweetheart teaser (4 team teaser getting 13 points each). Clearly for a rookie this has sucker bet written all over it, however I think for a more experienced better that does his research this can be a steal of a bet if done right. For some reason teasing your O/U "locks" down and teasing blowout games (-14) down or vice versa is just killing it with these types of bets. Again, I am sure people get burned with these bets day in and day out but I cant deny the success I have had with these once in a while. Am I wrong here to do this once in a while? Am I going to get caught with my hand in the cookie jar and pay for it one time? Are my thoughts logical? Let me know what you think about this. All feedback is welcomed here. Ben

[QUOTE=bjhuber22;26157]Hey everyone, new to the site here and very excited to see what is out there. I have been betting NFL, CFB, etc for about 10 years now and do so on a couple sites. There is a bet type on Bodog that I periodically go back to that I know I shouldn't but have had tons of success with. I am no rookie and I know this is a sucker bet but I have a thought and looking for feedback. I am sure some of you are familiar with it but it is called the sweetheart teaser (4 team teaser getting 13 points each). Clearly for a rookie this has sucker bet written all over it, however I think for a more experienced better that does his research this can be a steal of a bet if done right. For some reason teasing your O/U "locks" down and teasing blowout games (-14) down or vice versa is just killing it with these types of bets. Again, I am sure people get burned with these bets day in and day out but I cant deny the success I have had with these once in a while. Am I wrong here to do this once in a while? Am I going to get caught with my hand in the cookie jar and pay for it one time? Are my thoughts logical? Let me know what you think about this. All feedback is welcomed here. Ben[/QUOTE] welcome ben i am new here to.. just be on for a month, and only been betting for 5 years.. never been a fan of teaser or parlay bets.. its tuff enough to get 3 out 4 of right let alone 4 out of 4, extra points or not. when have u had success? my guess would be large cfb FAVS,cant see it working for nfl to many upsets. i could see it working for say Ohio, Bama, Texas, Neb,USC something like that.. cheers Balman

Balman, thanks for the response. I have seen success in both cfb and nfl. It is really more about the spread than the sport. For example, an OU of 36 is nice to tease down to 23 because even on a bad day, two low scoring teams can put up 23 total by mistake. Also spreads that are around -14 are better than spreads that are -6 because teasing down the heavy favorite to -1 is a nice play. So for me its more about the spreads rather than sport when I do these (which is rare).

alright next time u play 1 post it, do you have any in mind right for cfb?

total=36 in the NFL Welcome to lvasports to both of you. I am new to the site as well and I have already learned a lot from the experts here. Here are some number for the OU line of 36 for sweetheart teasers. Since the start of the 1989 season, there have been 184 games with a total of 36. Of these, the points scored distribution has been: More than 23 points: 151 times Exactly 23 points: 9 times Less than 23 points: 24 times Ignoring the pushes (which is probably not a good thing to do, but I don't know how bodog handles a push in a sweetheart teaser), this is 86.3% winners. The minimum winning percentage needed can be calculated if you know the "juice." If you are laying 110 for 100, it is 85.1%, so the numbers indicate that your theory is correct. Prof M.

Balman - I will post a play for week 2 and lets see how this goes. I encourage others to post sweetheart teaser plays and lets test this theory out. I still believe that the stigma of sweetheart teasers are a sucker bet to the average joe, however when you get the professors stats behind and pick them in a logical way, they can be straight up locks. Prof Meyer - Thanks for pulling the stats. Keep up the good work.

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;26180]Welcome to lvasports to both of you. I am new to the site as well and I have already learned a lot from the experts here. Here are some number for the OU line of 36 for sweetheart teasers. Since the start of the 1989 season, there have been 184 games with a total of 36. Of these, the points scored distribution has been: More than 23 points: 151 times Exactly 23 points: 9 times Less than 23 points: 24 times Ignoring the pushes (which is probably not a good thing to do, but I don't know how bodog handles a push in a sweetheart teaser), this is 86.3% winners. The minimum winning percentage needed can be calculated if you know the "juice." If you are laying 110 for 100, it is 85.1%, so the numbers indicate that your theory is correct. Prof M.[/QUOTE] A push is always a loss in a 13 pt 4 team teaser.

Pushes [QUOTE=burger;26250]A push is always a loss in a 13 pt 4 team teaser.[/QUOTE] That really changes things -- when going from 36 to 23, there is a reasonable chance for a push at, say, 13-10, 16-7 etc. I ran the numbers for ALL totals below 37. It takes a couple of minutes with the SDQL. There have been 1045 NFL games with the OU line below 37. 122 of these stayed under after dropping the line 13 points and taking the over. 14 were pushes, which apparently turn the entire teaser into a loss. And 909 were wins. Counting the pushes as losses, this is a record of 909-136, which is 87% winners. If you could get this all the time, you would produce 57+% winners. As a final note, these are not "The Prof's" data. The data are on-line and available to anyone. Anyone can do this analysis. The link to the data is on the lvasports.com home page. To see how many games stayed under even with the extra 13 points in games where the total is less than 37, the SDQL text is: total

As the more-favorable conditions are found, it perhaps also prevents the chances you could find four games the same week. That said, it will occasionally present some great opportunities.