Reaction to Fezzik Friday post on strategy change

Reaction to Fezzik Friday post on strategy change My thoughts on a strategy change for Fezzik to spend more time betting and less handicapping was probably mixed and negative. I felt from a board subscriber's perspective it would be my opinion that it certainly wouldn't guarantee improved performance. Anything might be improved performance from this year's record but I'm not sure at all how the selections would change or why they would be better if he was spending more time betting vs. handicapping. No doubt I think Fezzik can and will win in the long run. For Fezzik personally, it seems like a huge step backward if he really goes through with that. Like Tiger Woods changing his swing these reinventions are difficult for sure. But I think I see some progress. There is definitely some talent on NFL totals as an example. To evolve as a bettor you need to be better on the "front end" of moves. You've got to find this stuff. The NBA totals that move 5 and 6 pts. The NFL totals that move 2 and 3 pts. The -6's that go to -7.5. The NBA sides that go from -2 to -5. This stuff is out there every day. And Fezzik knows that IMO. Using Nevada to bet late to moves is a much harder strategy than it was as they're quicker and I don't see how a bettor of Fezzik's size can even be satisfied with some of the limits. Do yoiu want to sit with me in my car while I watch the screen all day and drive around? Have 10 other books I can bet at offshore and spend ? This part of the business is for low lifes like me. Hell I'm planning my future staring out at the ocean blasting into Pinnacle all of my smart ideas and looking forward to helping my kids with their homework. But I'm down in AA ball here. Fez has a creative mind and made up his mind to do this for a living. He has the capital to invest. There is plenty of data out there. I don't know if you can get to a RAS level but I think you can be better than Dr. Bob that is for sure. But I'll also be honest with Fezzik if he's really doing 12 hrs a day handicapping I got to tell you he's doing something wrong and he needs to figure it out. No doubt the results have some bad variance but there are probably too many lemons for someone trying to win 55% of their bets that is for sure. Tiger didn't win the Masters after his swing changes either and it just has to get better. You were promoted to the big leagues. You won the Hilton Contest and you've won betting throughout your career. But what do you got in 2012? Too many of your winning strategies are: (a) More difficult to employ now than 5 years ago. (b) or aren't even available anymore. (c) or aren't any good anymore. No more 90 mph hour fastballs up here. Do you got what it takes to stay up here? Or have you capped out and time to move on to something else. There really is nothing wrong with that.

Well Skeeter Fezziks futures stuff and quarts/team totals is like printing money longterm , there is always plenty of stuff week to week also that id imagine fezz picks up also by time he can post mrkt already gone... also i dont mind next season putting 100grand or more if i can into the futures mrkt - during this season had fair amount in and it worked out reasonably well..also will help with time management can cut down on stuff week to week for football where numbers are getting tougher year after year ..it just makes more sense to go after the fish

First off I agree that his futures and quarters are winners long term. But realistically I don't think people as familiar on the board would be as certain based on the records. No doubt Fezzik will have bets that just can't be released here but he was able to bet either through his own creativity or able to follow quicker than others. I will use an analogy that may or may not make sense but Wayne Gretzky once said that when someone asked him if hockey fights were real and I roughly quote " Believe me if they weren't real I'd be in alot more of them". Well, I think if some of his front end plays were that great this board would have seen alot more of them. Like I say some of these plays got a lot to room to run if they're actually any good. When they don't run that great or you can't scalp it or worse it is a negative scalp you need to get a reality check that maybe...just maybe you aren't betting with an advantage. Fezzik himself has said on this forum he made it his business to know more what these numbers should be and I think he's made most of his money using the expertise of other people in knowing where the numbers should be and done a spectacular job doing it. But I think Bob Dylan once said 'the times they are a changin'.

This is probably a question no one here can answer, but how stubborn is Fezzik? If he is, then it can give you pause. The opponent here is stubbornness, rather than oddsmakers. Honestly, I think he's making his money with in-game running, and it is taking away the sense of urgency capping the rest of the stuff. In-game running isn't just easier, it's the future.

I agree in game betting has taken away pre game advatage big time i think.. Mid season last year I noticed this , Maybe time to try it more?? Not sure why maybe Fez or somene can explain??

In game running wagers can't be given out by touts. At that point, it's pretty much "every man for himself." And I do agree, the more Fez looks to these wagers, there has to be less focus on the other stuff. Not a rip, just a logical conclusion. I'm still a member here, but like anything, you continually reevaluate. That's true with anything in life - business, sports betting, relationships, etc... Either something is worth your money/time or it isn't. Everyone needs to decide these things for themselves. For any of US to tell Fez where to focus, that just ISN'T going to happen IMO.

[QUOTE=costar;49556]Well Skeeter Fezziks futures stuff and quarts/team totals is like printing money longterm , there is always plenty of stuff week to week also that id imagine fezz picks up also by time he can post mrkt already gone... also i dont mind next season putting 100grand or more if i can into the futures mrkt - during this season had fair amount in and it worked out reasonably well..[/QUOTE] Forgive me costar but this last statement makes me question your credibility and bias in this discussion. Fezz's multi-unit NFL RSW's bets went 0-3 and weighting the NFL was over -8 units. How in the world did it work out reasonably well?? Or did somehow you eliminate the multi-weight bets and just bet the single units?? As far as Fezz and his strategy focus etc, I applaud his decision to adapt and go where the grass is greener. Unfortunately, for most of us here on the site it eliminates a major reason why we are paying the fees we are. If Fezz were to provide education rather than picks in my mind it still might be worth it but when I get no picks and no education what then am I paying for that I cant get at another forum. Really it sounds like it is a question of the purpose of the fees and what the site is intended for and that may be an Anthony question and not a Fezz one. Just my 2 cents.

I didn't go into full detail, but I think if someone put the cameras on my 24/7, they would say "How the heck does he have time to do what he used to do?" During the summer, TONS of time to get ready. Sure, futures no good THIS year, but that's an aberration, I fully expect to kill season wins every year. And to get great NFL week1 and 2 bets. BUT........let's fast forward to a typical September week. UHOH. SUNDAY 10am. (YOU DO NOT EVEN WANT TO KNOW 8am-10am schedule time scramble). Watch select games, do accounting/recording of bets made in am. Fire in hafltime bets. MAYBE Do quick and dirty accounting of the day games. MAYBE grade how some bets did (props, etc). More so when asked 'how did you do?, I don't have to say "NO F)#*%#( idea yet!" FRANTICALLY cap in more detail select CFB games I looked at last night quickly. Afternnon games kickoff. SCRABMLE TO GET TO WYNN to bet 2pm release of CFB openers. How do I know what to bet? STAYED UP TIL 4am making numbers with college guy. Stay there to bet halftimes. Watch 10 mins of action tops. FRANTICALLY open laptop at 3:30 pm, go over boxes, scramble with conf call with my NFL guy to set NFL next week numbers. RUSH to HILTON to be ready to pay opners. AFTER, RUSH to M do SNF prop reseearch. More box scores analysis . More betting for next weeks games. 'How did you do today fez?" "NO )#(*%(*)%( idea"...... Bet SNF in run wagering at M 5-8:30. Bolt early 7:40pm. Don't watch last 30 mins. Pick up late dinner. Go home. Drop off dinner with wife. Kiss wife and baby goodnight. Frantically look at Sunday night lines. Get down on select games, while watching the Blitz review. MAYBE quick grading of action ........UNLIKELY ! quick and dirty accounting of day. Watch 11pm Sports Center.......often rush out to M or South Point or GVR before closing to grab bets. Sleep at 1am, horrificaly sleep deprivated. Wake up at 7am. Take care of stuff in house 7-8. Take card of baby 8am-10am (sneaking into office for 2 10 min periods). Baby takes nap 10:30-12:30. I do MNF props, finallly get some accounting, look for really good bets based on the markets. 1p-4pm. POUR over NFL bosscores. Listen to sports Memo show. Surf web sites for select posters. 4-5:40 run around betting mnf props GVR, sP , sometimes strip, go Trop M. IN RUNNING MNF 5-8pm. Contrast this schedule with a top handicapper who doesn't bet. "Sit on ass 24/7. Researching every game completely. Give out who I like". Having said all this, I am very well connected with guys who are very, very good at this. So we are WAY more efficient than a guy trying to do this solo. ALSO, I DO think I'm great at reading the markets, when I have time............but I'm just shot by Tuesday afternoon, and unlike in the past when I'd work T-W 10 hours each, I dial it back to 4 hours a day, and spend some quality family time, and try to get some sleep.........by THursday its busy again (CHECK THE WEATHER!, THE INJURIES, DONT MISS THE THURS IN RUN GAME, etc). NO doubt, I'm missing TONS of value T-W being basically on the sidelines instead of the front lines........

So what can Fez Do for you? I actually think the March-Aug time is the most critical. I have LOTS of free time to assist/answer questions. THe key value of this board is to have me give value on things, perpective.........Not to mention anyone wanting to make $$ playing an ez to beat game (poker NL) will find I am pretty uniquely qualified to do so........having self taught my way over the years and I can say "Poker NL IS easy". Further, prop betting in sports IS easy. If people asked me more questions, I'd be more apt to comment more......

Bkeiller - i bet 3 winners in college , iowa,or st , bama (one was my biggest bet of yr iowa) i bet nfl reg seasons props heavy hous +1 winner san diego +1 prob loss - bet nfl season wins new orl over winner pitt under poss loss chic under winner , clev loss and the oak under which i could not get as much as i wanted on as i said i dont bet everything fezz puts up for one reason or another , i have access to lot more info than just fezz plus i bet plenty of other stuff to win like slow moving political bets - used to bet lot more soccer asian handicaps but lines hav def tightened up also but no need to anymore so much more easier stuff to concentrate fully on futures