Replacement Officials

Replacement Officials As of now, it looks very possible that the NFL will begin the season with replacement officials. I am working diligently on the adjustment of each team's offensive and defensive power ratings to help me make a total for each matchup. For those of you who handicap NFL sides, I don't think that you can make any adjustments based upon new officials. However, as a totals handicapper, I am struggling to predetermine if I need to make any adjustments to my numbers based on the game being officiated by "rookies". Will replacement officials call a game "loose" or "tight"? Perhaps, veteran offensive linemen know which officials allow them to hold.Maybe defensive backs know which officials allow them to bump the receiver more than 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. Quarterbacks may know which officials are going to be very quick in calling "roughing the QB" or call intentional grounding etc. I am not sure if replacement officials will result in more scoring or less scoring in NFL contests. Before I make my final raw numbers, I need to know if I should factor in this variable or simply ignore it. I would appreciate any input or opinions from experienced NFL handicappers. Thanks, charliej

I hope you get some useful input as well. In the meantime, I hope my comments can help. a) Are replacement officials being used in preseason games? Although starters don't play much, this would be the time for replacement officials to figure out how they will run a game. There should be some clear trends among crews (provided the crews themselves stay the same throughout the preseason) when comparing the weeks. b) When determining which positions are affected the most by officiating (you outline OL, DB, and QB above), it is the savviest (those with the most experience and highest Wonderlics as well, perhaps) that will take advantage of this. Drew Brees? Sure. Sam Bradford? Not so much. Finally, one would think teams like the Raiders will be the hardest to handicap without this information because of their propensity to commit penalties. And the Patriots? Probably no difference at all.

[URL="https://www.footballdb.com/scores.html?yr=2001&lg=NFL"]https://www.footballdb.com/scores.html?yr=2001&lg=NFL[/URL] Here's week 1 2001. Last time NFL used replacement refs.

Will be interesting to see them try to explain the new OT rules before the coin toss if it happens. It was hard for the real refs to explain it in the playoffs.

Thank you for your input joelshitshow and twoniner. I believe that the replacement refs are scheduled to officiate all of the preseason games (unless a CBA is accomplished in the very near future). I am not sure if the same crew will work together in all regular season games. It would probably help if we could get a reading of how each crew called previous games. If there is no labor resolution before the season starts, it looks like my only handicapping strategy is to limit my totals wagers during the first few weeks of the season. It is obvious that officiating greatly impacts any totals wagering and could be a major variable in setting a proper number for a matchup.

Refs were swallowing the whistle, which had supposedly been the case in 2001. Tough to say which way this will break. My only guess would be very good passing teams would be hurt maybe a bit more. Not having holding calls will help out ball control and running teams a bit more. And more defensive penalties are possible on passing downs. The exception will probably be the Patriots who I'm sure will game the new refs better than other teams. And the Raiders who lead the league in penalties every season

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