Rethinking Rookie QBs

Rethinking Rookie QBs Seeing Dalton and Newton perform above expectations is making me rethink the whole betting wisdom of going against rookie QBs. These guys are 3-0-1 so far this year. Seems like coaching staffs are able to prepare rookie QBs far better than they used to for the NFL which is translating into early season success. Teams will no doubt find ways to adjust to slow them down but I think the betting market is undervaluing rookie QBs. If you throw out Clausen (who totally sucks) from the stats below the numbers are even more impressive. Rookie QBs might be too undervalued by the NFL betting market. What do you guys think... time to start backing these guys? The stats to back it up: The last five rookie quarterbacks who started as of Week 1, combined to go 39-34 SU and 42-31 ATS. Even more impressive than that is those four teams who started rookie quarterbacks since 2008, (Atlanta (Ryan), Baltimore (Flacco), Detroit (Stafford), New York Jets (Sanchez) and St. Louis (Bradford)), went a combined 19-61 SU and 32-48 ATS the year before the rookies arrived. 2010 a-Sam Bradford, St. Louis – 16 starts, 76.5 QB rating, 18 TD, 15 INT, 7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS Jimmy Clausen, Carolina – 10 starts, 58.4 QB rating, 3 TD, 9 INT, 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS 2009 a-Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – 15 starts, 63.0 QB rating, 12 TD, 20 INT, 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS a-Matthew Stafford, Detroit – 10 starts, 61.0 QB rating, 13 TD, 20 INT, 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay– 9 starts, 59.8 QB rating, 10 TD, 18 INT, 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS 2008 a-Joe Flacco, Baltimore – 16 starts, 80.3 QB rating, 14 TD, 12 INT, 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS a-Matt Ryan, Atlanta – 16 starts, 87.7 QB rating, 16 TD, 11 INT, 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS 2007 Trent Edwards, Buffalo – 10 starts, 70.4 QB rating, 7 TD, 8 INT, 5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS 2006 Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – 13 starts, 66.7 QB rating, 12 TD, 13 INT, 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh –13 starts, 98.1 QB rating, 17 TD, 11 INT, 13-0 SU, 10-3-1 ATS

These guys continue to outperform so far in 2011. 13-5-1 ATS combined. Gabbert- 2-3 ATS Ponder - 1-0 ATS Newton - 5-1-1 ATS Dalton - 5-1 ATS

Based on the original post, Ponder shouldn't be counted because he didn't start in Week 1, correct?

yes good point. Gabbert should be thrown out too since he didn't start until Week 3. But both Gabbert and Ponder have been impressive.

[QUOTE=valueinvestor;47490]yes good point. Gabbert should be thrown out too since he didn't start until Week 3. But both Gabbert and Ponder have been impressive.[/QUOTE] I think Gabbert has played well so far and has a strong arm, Ponder though, really struggled. Take away the first TD pass on the blown coverage and he was terrible the rest of the game. Moved the ball a little at the end against a prevent defense.

Ponder I have hope for improvement this year. Gabbert has zero pocket presence and not much more accuracy.

Dalton (8-6-2) and Newton (9-6-1) ATS according to Vegasinsider ATS rankings. They tailed off from their hot start but ended out the year as profitable investments if you backed them every week.

1. OC's develop game plans to suit their QB's. I think more in the past teams had an offense and the QB had to learn it. In that system not just rookie QB's but any QB could struggle just a rookie QB would struggle more than a veteran. 2. I think an area not touched by the betting board too frequently but plays a part: Money. Just like in a corporation it is just more and more expected one hits their job on the ground running. The amount of money being paid is extremely large and these guys come much more prepared. The coaches comes much more prepared. Regardless of what Denver does and I know they lost a few at the end of the year I was impressed by their work in making Tebow the QB, fitting an offense to him and really impressed how Tebow who is such a young man handles the pressure of being an NFL QB even though he isn't nearly up for the job long term without large improvements. And he's made millions from getting as far as he has I'm sure. Everyone is doing their job here. You see a guy like Flynn he's working that is just obvious during the week. He's well paid for not playing very often but he's prepared. What I find interesting is their growth curve as they progress and if they're getting better. Defenses will adjust of course to their strengths and if they don't really improve they will be in trouble. Tebow a glaring example of that but all of these guys are. Could be a bad analogy but a rookie QB can be like a starting pitcher in baseball and may have an advantage starting their career in a prepared offense to fit his strengths as defenses of course are not set up to stop generally a particular QB. But like hitters in baseball they'll adjust after seeing the QB. If Colt McCoy can't get the ball down field the coverages will change. Sanchez finishes his 3rd year I don't want to say he looked better in his 1st year because I've seen him make some really nice throws but at the same time he's making lots of mistakes. The progress is rather muted IMO.

I thought I would get this thread up again to remind myself and others that betting against Rookie starting QBs is no longer a slam dunk. For whatever reason, most Rookie QBs starting Week 1 have been profitable investments if you back them throughout the season. I added Dalton and Newton to the list from last year. This year will set a record for 5 rookie QBs starting a season opener. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no more than two rookie quarterbacks have started the season opener since the 1970 merger. Not sure if these 5 will continue the trend or blow it up. 2011 Cam Newton, Carolina- 16 starts, 84.5 QB rating, 35 TD(Passing+Rushing), 17 INT, 6-10 SU, 9-6-1 ATS Andy Dalton, Cincinnati- 16 starts, 80.4 QB rating, 20 TD, 13 INT, 9-7 SU, 8-6-2 ATS 2010 Sam Bradford, St. Louis – 16 starts, 76.5 QB rating, 18 TD, 15 INT, 7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS Jimmy Clausen, Carolina – 10 starts, 58.4 QB rating, 3 TD, 9 INT, 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS 2009 Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – 15 starts, 63.0 QB rating, 12 TD, 20 INT, 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS Matthew Stafford, Detroit – 10 starts, 61.0 QB rating, 13 TD, 20 INT, 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay– 9 starts, 59.8 QB rating, 10 TD, 18 INT, 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS 2008 Joe Flacco, Baltimore – 16 starts, 80.3 QB rating, 14 TD, 12 INT, 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS Matt Ryan, Atlanta – 16 starts, 87.7 QB rating, 16 TD, 11 INT, 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS 2007 Trent Edwards, Buffalo – 10 starts, 70.4 QB rating, 7 TD, 8 INT, 5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS 2006 Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – 13 starts, 66.7 QB rating, 12 TD, 13 INT, 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh –13 starts, 98.1 QB rating, 17 TD, 11 INT, 13-0 SU, 10-3-1 ATS

teams are more willing to start Rookies from day 1 instead of grooming them. i guess i dont blame them too much. you're paying them millions, get as much experience as you can at the cost of having a poor season. Rookie QB tend to be drafted fairly high or in first round to terrible teams that need a QB. terrible teams tend to get favorable lines the following year and also face easier schedules. it would make sense they would do well as the team is often focused on improving, have a good QB and have favorable lines/schedule. although I have to admit I fear for Tannehill and Weeden. who do these guys throw to?